Defending climate sceptics (Thurs 24th March, 2011)
In her article Kris Anderson claimed:
1. ‘There really aren’t any scientists outside the climate-change ‘consensus’ and those statistically insignificant few that are, mostly aren’t climate scientists.’
2. ‘Emotionality, ‘belief’, and fairness shouldn’t come into it at all, especially when we’re talking about something as complex and variable as climate change. Expertise and hard data are what’s required.’
It was Al Gore who first made public the risible oxymorons: ‘all scientists are agreed’ and ‘the debate is over’ but to date, more than a thousand international scientists have challenged the IPCC reports. These include perhaps the most distinguished climate scientist of his generation, MIT’s Richard Lindzen.
In fact Gore’s claims and the knowledge that he stood to make a personal fortune out of promoting the ‘dangers’ of CO2 raised warning flags across the scientific community. Getting scientists to agree is the same as getting economists to agree: it’s like herding cats. Science progresses by investigating alternative theories and one of the fundamental characteristics of scientific research is that the debate is never over.
Climategate and the use of propaganda rather than science in the reports of the IPCC have done terrible damage to the thesis of man-made global warming. The CRU whistleblower showed the world that climate data had been willfully manipulated and legitimate arguments suppressed in peer-reviewed journals. The IPCC is a typical United Nations’ entity, fraught with waste and fraud. It has gathered data, selecting positive observations and suppressing others, then amplified and simplified the results to provide a false sense of certainty. But no scientific assertion based on observational data, let alone one based on a series of computer ‘simulations’, should be made without a clear statement of uncertainty.
Weather is complex and variable and so is climate – influenced by large amplitude short-term events, long-term trends, decadal fluctuations and lots of ‘noise’. The fatal weakness of all climate models is their inability to incorporate the natural change in cloud cover and the public has no idea how flimsy and circumstantial is their evidence. Policies based on the predictions of the existing models are also suspect because they provide such a conflicting range of scenarios.
The Met Office claims that while no individual weather event can be attributed to global warming, taken as a whole, they show a trend consistent with global warming. That is, I am afraid, logical nonsense. If no single extreme event in an ensemble is due to global warming then when taken together they cannot be used as evidence for the contrary.
Arab Spring (Wed 30th March)
Alan Fisher wrote: ‘Arab leaders suddenly woke up to the fact that the oppressive and brutal techniques to crack down on opposition would no longer work’.
How I wish that were true. Instead, if I was a strategic adviser to one of the many tyrants in the third world, the following would be my advice:
The West does not bomb nations like North Korea and Iran which possess nuclear and/or chemical weapons so despots like Gadaffi should retain their stockpiles.
Libya demonstrated that the West dithers so dictators have a window of opportunity to crush rebellions but they must maintain large, brutal forces and massacre at speed.
Egypt and Tunisia showed that unless you have the West by the shorts (like Saudi Arabia) there is no point in being an ally because western loyalty is an oxymoron.
Libyan Adventure (Thurs 11th April)
In the political satire “Wag the dog” the producer of the phony war, Dustin Hoffman, told that the rebels seek “freedom and democracy”, asks “Why would they want that?” When in 2006 we finally succeeded in bullying the Palestinian territories into holding a “free and democratic” election, the terrorist organisation Hamas won hands down. The naivety of military intervention against Gadaffi is breathtaking and the assumption that the outcome would be a “free and democratic” Libya was never questioned. Senators Lieberman, Kerry and McCain led the calls for intervention – as they did in Iraq – and Suez serves as a bitter warning against Anglo-French ploys in the Middle East. Perhaps as a rule of thumb, the next time Turkey, Germany, Russia, China, Africa and the Arab League line up to tell us a course of action is ill-advised, we should listen.
Libyan Stalemate (Tues 19th April)
If the Anglo-French had not pressured America to bomb yet another Muslim nation into “democracy” the tribal uprising in East Libya would by now have fizzled out.
The much vaunted threat of “unspeakable carnage” in Benghazi is pure hyperbole because the Islamist rebels would have melted away over the Egyptian border.
With Blair’s ghost haunting this feast of foolishness, David Cameron is being pressured to obtain an explicit UN mandate rather than allowing mission creep to continue.
Yet the Arab League and African Union are clearly unhappy that the UN sanction was used by the West to lob missiles willy-nilly into Libya and shoot the place up.
I am sure China and Russia will veto military invasion and decry the flooding of Libya with guns but not obtaining a fresh UN mandate will make this war as illegal as Iraq.
Starting over at the IMF (Thurs 21st April)
Gordon Brown, emerged from his Kirkcaldy purdah, is smooching the US in a vain attempt to replace French Presidential hopeful Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the IMF.
However, Brown is hopelessly uncollegiate and the economic shambles he created in the UK makes him a poor candidate in comparison to the formidable Christine Lagarde.
Sadly Lagarde is the Finance Minister of France and I suspect most nations will baulk at yet another French chief executive in spite of her brilliance and international experience.
Anyway it is time to bin the archaic and insulting trade-off by which an American is given top spot at the World Bank in return for European leadership of the IMF.
The Asian talent is beyond belief starting with the surpassingly able Joseph Yam of Hong Kong with alternatives such as Heng Swee Keat of Singapore or S Sridhar of India.
A darker side to the Arab Spring (Thurs 28th April)
Fear is mounting among Syria’s Christians that the rioters will soon turn on them and Islamists have already sent letters to their churches with the message: “You’re next.”
For decades, the Assad government protected Christian and other minorities by enforcing a strictly secular program and curbing the Muslim Brotherhood fanatics.
Christians make up only 10 percent of Syria’s population but they are highly educated professionals working in medicine, dentistry, engineering and the government.
There are numerous denominations including Roman Catholic, Syriac Catholic and Greek Orthodox sharing a history in these lands that dates back nearly 2,000 years.
Assad always visited Christian communities to pray and pass on messages of goodwill but the “Arab Spring” will bring Syria – as elsewhere – ethnic and religious cleansing.
Scottish Independence (Friday 6th May)
As a Franco-Scot married to an Anglo-Swede, I lack the xenophobia necessary to believe Scottish independence would not prove an all-round catastrophe.
An increasing number of people in England, especially in the South-East, would welcome our departure, but I do not think the Scots are mad enough to vote for it.
Scotland is still prone to Darien-style ventures so if cut adrift some lunatic scheme like “renewables” would turn it into the chilly version of a Club-Med banana republic.
Death of a Legend (Wed 11th May)
Seve Ballesteros was the finest match-play golfer of his generation. He dominated the Ryder Cup for twenty years and was the first European to win the Masters.
He was born into an extended family of golfers on the peninsula across the bay from Santander in the little town of Pedrena next to Harry Colt’s Royal Pedrena golf course.
Turning pro at the age of 16, he blazed across the international scene to win three Opens, two Masters and to captain the first winning Ryder Cup team on the Continent.
Seve bloomed early and faded early. From his middle thirties he was tormented by the physical and mental problems which would ruin his later career and private life.
But at his best, especially on that iconic day in St Andrews in 1984, he was the wildest and most exciting thing I ever saw on the links and that is the image I carry in my heart.
Moral Confusion (Tues 17th May)
Reinhold Niebuhr, the great Protestant ethicist, said “simple Christian moralism can be senseless and confusing” – as the Archbishop of Canterbury daily confirms. In the tortuous language he uses when trying to avoid taking a clear moral stance, Dr Rowan Williams insinuated that the USA acted unjustly in shooting bin Laden. Yet the US action stands entirely within the Just War tradition shaped by Christian ethics which requires non-combatant immunity, proportionality and right intention. As the information currently stands, bin Laden was given an opportunity to surrender but did not take it and surely only the morally obtuse can find that a matter for regret. A trial and life imprisonment would have left every US national overseas vulnerable to being taken hostage by Islamic terrorists in order to force the monster’s release.
Bombing for Peace (18th May)
Human Rights Watch welcomed the decision of the international court to indict Gaddafi which should tell us all we need to know of this latest piece of counter-productive idiocy. At the same time the Anglo-French are overflying the suburbs of Tripoli ‘Bombing for Peace’ and what allegedly happened in New York is doubtless ‘Raping for Virginity’. The coalition has decided to legally bind the UK to decades of drastic cuts in CO2, which will see catastrophic changes in every aspect of domestic life, transport and business. Almost half our teenagers will soon be paying £9,000 a year for a pretendy degree in a pretendy subject from a pretendy university and be rewarded with a McJob. If Gordon Brown is given the top post at the IMF it will be official – the world has gone completely mad.
It’s a gas (Tues 24th May)
Shell has completed the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar where catalysts are used to turn the vast new supplies of shale gas into jet fuel, diesel and other liquids. Smaller scale versions of this technology will soon be widely available and it is expected to account for more than half of U.S. production of diesel within ten years. The process will lead to a collapse in power prices and put at risk Alex Salmond’s plan for Scotland to take a world lead in producing expensive renewable-energy. His only hope must be that EU greens will block the development of our own shale gas fields thus keeping European power and fuel prices artificially high. This will end Scottish manufacturing but at least US shale will reduce the cost of the vast supplies of fertilizers our farmers still need because of the EU ban on GM crops.
Reflections on Gay Monday (Thurs 26th May)
When the 3 million-strong American Presbyterian Church agreed this month to ordain openly gay clergy, the Kirk was left out of step with the mainline reformed churches. The APC decision had brought the Presbyterians into line with other American Protestant churches such as the Episcopalians, Lutherans and the Church of Christ. The European reformed churches such as those in Scandinavia, Germany and Holland have long had gay clergy in sexually active monogamous relationships. Discrimination against gays is absolutely illegal in the British job market and surveys show that this legislation is supported by well over 90 per cent of the population. As a national church, the Kirk can hardly refuse to obey the law and this was the state of play when the issue, kicked into the long grass in 2009, bounced back into play. Fundamentalists believe the Bible is free of error as originally written even though it accepts slavery, genocide, mass murder, and the stoning adulterers to death. They hold homosexual behavior is always a serious sin and oppose same sex marriage and the inclusion of sexual orientation in hate-crime and anti-discrimination legislation. Mainline Protestants promote equal rights for all sexual orientations, same-sex marriage and civil union, equal protection under hate-crime and employment legislation. Whether by accident or design the Kirk’s mainline theological heavyweights were absent from the General Assembly leaving an open goal for the evangelicals. The only challenges to the misleading fundamentalist claim that the Bible specifically outlaws consensual homosexual relations came from American and African clerics. In fact, in the original Greek, the Scriptures are ambiguous about homosexuality and do not contain any clear references to gay activity within a committed relationship. Paul did condemn homosexual orgies, ritual gay sex in Pagan temples and the sexual rape of young boys by adult males but such a stance elicits total Christian support. The problem is that, after having been filtered through the belief systems of the many translators, some English versions of the Bible do condemn all homosexual behavior. It was interesting to see a black minister stand up to oppose our fundamentalists because it is generally assumed that all African Christianity is homophobic. This is not the case and many black leaders such as the legendary Bishop Desmond Tutu, hero of the long struggle against apartheid in South Africa, support gay rights. He has accused both the Churches of Scotland and England of “allowing their obsession with homosexuality to come before Christ’s mission and action on poverty.” On his last visit he addressed both churches saying he believed we were going against the teaching of Jesus in our treatment of gay people and “persecuting the persecuted”. He said it was simply outrageous to suggest that “gay people choose homosexuality” and that we should “keep a grip on reality and keep the dispute in proportion.” Before booting the issue back into the outfield, the General Assembly passed a codicil allowing gay ministers already ordained by the Kirk to apply for vacant charges. This takes pressure off the church for the moment and will prevent it appearing in court but the Edinburgh air was thick with homophobia and this is not over. The make-up of the committee chosen to look at the theological issues over the next two years is immaterial since no compromise on homosexual rights is possible. Conservatives will continue to hold that homosexual behaviour is always a serious sin and bitterly oppose gay ordination whatever the legal and ecclesiastical consequences.
Dream on, Michelle (Tues 31st May)
It was admirable of Michelle Obama to invite some of the disadvantaged girls she met two years ago at a giant London comprehensive to meet her again at Oxford University.
However her claims that it was perfectly possible for them to move on to an “Ivy League” university in the UK as she had done in the US are fanciful and unkind.
Along with Jesse Jackson’s daughter, she was hot-housed in Chicago’s first “magnet” school, an outfit so academically selective it makes our most elite grammar school look inclusive.
Both she and her brother then moved effortlessly on into Princeton and Harvard before she fetched up in one of the oldest and more prestigious law firms in America.
Empathy is a wonderful thing but I doubt these girls, now recipients of the UK’s dire state-school education, are going to walk the primrose academic path available to clever black girls in the US.
Appeal Court’s lordly self-satisfaction (Wed 1st June)
The function of the Supreme Court is to ensure people in Scotland accused of a crime have the same human-rights cover as people in the rest of the Britain.
Many of us welcome its oversight in these matters because the Scottish Court of Appeal has an indifferent record and is all too prone to lordly self-satisfaction.
When push comes to shove, it can demonstrate a woeful lack of moral fibre such as its handling of the appeal against the manifestly unsafe conviction of Abdelbaset al Megrahi.
Alex Salmond is outraged that the Supreme Court has overturned the verdict in a high-profile murder case and has demanded the right to refer appeals directly to Europe.
In fact Mr Salmond is shooting rather thoughtlessly from the hip because the EU will be much harder than London on any breaches of human rights by the Scottish judiciary.
The mystery of Flight AF447 (Thurs 2nd June)
Air France flight AF 447 – an Airbus A330 – was at its cruising altitude above the Atlantic Ocean on June 1, 2009 when the captain left the cockpit for his rest period. As the plane flew into a tropical storm the autopilot and the auto-thrust disengaged probably because the three speed gauges on the outside of the aircraft had iced up. At the plane’s cruising altitude of 36,000 feet, maintaining a precise speed is critical with a margin of error so small that pilots call this position “coffin corner.” One co-pilot said “I have the controls.” but the aircraft pitched to the right and as he struggled to correct this his colleague called out, “We’ve lost the speeds.” The warning “Stall! Stall!” sounded and the pilots reacted with maximum thrust but the horizontal stabilizer then moved to the maximum forcing the plane into a steep climb. Whether this manoeuvre was pilot error or just the result of increased thrust (a known characteristic) will be a huge bone of contention between Air France and Airbus. If it was a programming error leading to a failure of the Airbus’ electronic flight control system, the pilots could not have forced down the nose while full thrust was on.The report indicates the captain re-entered the cockpit, recognized the problem and screamed “It’s a stall. Reduce power and nose down!” But it was too late. The jet was still pointing steeply upwards and losing vertical altitude at a rate of 200 kilometers per hour when 40 seconds later it crashed into the sea. Questions will be asked as to why the veteran captain went for his break leaving inexperienced colleagues to cope with a tropical storm he knew to be approaching. However, of much greater significance is the part played by the stabilizer. In theory the pilots could have adjusted it but they would first have had to know it was deflected. Tellingly, Airbus has since delineated the correct behavior in the event of a stall which involves the manual trimming of the stabilizers using a wheel near the thrust levers. The other piece of kit under the microscope is the French made speed sensor used by Airbus which is known to be significantly more prone to failure than a rival US model. There are 32 cases in which A330 crews got into serious difficulties because the speed sensors failed and the maker admitted in 2005 that such failures “could cause crashes.” The industry has a bad record of tombstone technology in which known dangers are ignored until passenger deaths make it impossible so to do and this looks like another.
End of the world and all that (Wed 8th June)
The apocalyptic scares which dominated Europe at the close of the first millennium returned at the end of the second in an explosion of precaution and risk-aversion.
The success of scaremongering has little to with the reality of the threat as it depends on the ability of the scaremonger to resonate with contemporary cultural values.
Thus the Rev Harold Camping’s end-of-the-world prediction, which would have caused mass panic in the Dark Ages, provoked only hilarity and “Rapture” parties.
Yet our scientific age falls for the ridiculous Al Gore and his disaster movie and even awards him a Nobel Prize for predicting all sorts of “end-of-the-planet” nonsense.
Germany’s hysterical decision to close its nuclear power plants chimes with threats of health pandemics and all the other mega-hazards said to confront humanity today.
Soft touch Britain (Thurs 9th June)
International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell claims our vast foreign aid bill has made the UK a ‘development superpower’ and should be a source of national pride.
However it is difficult to see why giving £300million a year to India when it is spending billions on its own space programme makes us looking anything other than a soft touch.
Alex Salmond warbles the same nonsense about Scotland being a “renewables superpower” and it is the sort of vanity project we could do without in the midst of this recession.
Increasing our aid by 35% to £12 billion ignores warnings from African economists that aid perpetuates poor governance and poverty by fostering dependency and corruption.
Only trade and individual effort will create and spread wealth and Africa would be better served if we insisted Europe lift its protectionist tariffs against African farm products.
Assisted Dying (Wed 15th June)
The BBC documentary “Choosing to Die” was a major contribution to the long-running debate on euthanasia which is one of our most controversial national issues.
Developments in medicine mean desperately ill patients can be kept alive for prolonged periods often by means of excessively burdensome treatments and in severe pain.
Both my physiotherapist wife and I have “living wills” as a result of the harrowing scenes we witnessed professionally in the geriatric wards of the NHS.
Claims that front line palliative care is available to all UK patients are manifestly false and the country will increasingly be unable to afford such a service.
Large numbers of doctors admit in non-identifiable surveys they have resorted to euthanasia and opinion polls show that 80% of us want an assisted dying law.
Yet our politicians, under pressure from the churches, refuse to face the matter head on and prefer to off-load this ethical dilemma abroad in a morally reprehensible manner.
Legalisation would clearly bring the practice of giving merciful release to patients in extremis out of the back alley and protect the vulnerable from abuse.
Having access to physician-assisted suicide simply allows a patient to maintain control over his or her situation and to end their lives in an ethical and merciful manner.
If such access is available here, the need for premature journeys to foreign countries and dying among strangers would be removed – surely the ultimate unintended consequence.
A sweat shop is the first rung on the ladder (Wed 22nd June)
The action most likely to kick-start Africa is the setting-up of a pan-African free-trade area to remove the barriers making it difficult for poor people to trade with each other.
We should also support the World Trade Organisation’s efforts to reduce the barriers to international trade and especially decry the EU’s outrageous agricultural tariffs.
Anything else, and I include such iconic ventures as Fairtrade or campaigns to close Third World sweat-shops, is simply window dressing or even counter-productive.
If you want to help, do not support the self-serving trade unions whose true ambition is simply to close down competition but actually purchase the products of sweat-shops.
This is how Singapore started and if the young cannot get an industrial job, the boy will back making mud-bricks on the farm and his sister on the streets selling her body.
Africa’s true prophet (Thurs 23rd June)
Desmond Tutu, in an article which will resonate with David Mackenzie (June 22), deplores the wave of hate spreading across Africa against gay, bisexual and transgendered people.
“But the worst aspect”, he says, “is that it is being done in the name of God. I demand to be shown where Christ said, ‘Love all thy fellow men – except for the gay ones’.”
He dismisses with contempt the claim that gay people choose a life of sin for which they must be punished saying that science and medicine prove no-one “chooses” to be gay.
“Sexual orientation, like skin color, is part of our diversity as a human family and I find it wonderful that, though we are all made in God’s image, yet there is still such diversity.”
“Can any of us know the mind of God so well that we can decide who is included and who is excluded from His love, or who is called and who is not called to do His work?”
What does NATO stand for (Tues 28th June)
Since March, NATO has flown over 12,000 missions employing jet fighters, attack helicopters and missile firing drones to reduce large areas of Tripoli to rubble. With the US refusing to do the heavy lifting, it remains an Anglo-French affair supported by Italy and Scandinavia with the steely disapproval of Turkey and Germany. Whatever aim Cameron and Sarkozy secretly conceived, the mission remains a murky mystery and this isolated and demoralized regime has proved remarkably resilient. The UN foolishly authorized the use of “all means necessary to protect Libya’s civilians” but NATO has clearly exacerbated the very humanitarian crisis it was intended to relieve. All Turkish and African peace efforts have been deliberately undermined by fresh attacks and the banner “NATO – Now A Terrorist Organisation” is widely seen in the region.
Sectarian Molehill (Tues 28th June)
As the son of a miner turned minister of the Kirk and having been brought in an “orange” village in the west-central coalfields I have seen my share of sectarianism. But I spent all my post-war, childhood summers with my French grandmother in the all-inclusive Catholic lifestyle of rural France captured in the iconic satire, “Clochemerle”. After university and some years in scientific research and commerce, I too entered the Kirk and served very happily as a parish minister in Broughty Ferry for 35 years. I have always had a great deal of affection for Alex Salmond and have even taken him seriously on occasion but I think he is making a mountain out of this sectarian molehill. The origin of the antagonism between the Protestants and Catholics in Central Scotland had virtually nothing to do with religion and almost everything to do with economics. It was a constant complaint throughout the industrial areas of Scotland from the start of the 19th century that the Irish migrants were strikebreakers and depressed the wages. The situation was not helped by the greatest churchman of the age, Dr Thomas Chalmers, encouraging early industrialists to recruit black-leg labour in Ireland during strikes. This would cause outrage today but Chalmers, as able an economist as he was a cleric, was a high Tory and a man of his times with a deep dislike of the early Trade Unions. The violence and hatred were especially bad in the Lanarkshire coalfields and it would not be helpful to rehearse the starvation and desperation which existed in both camps. But the re-establishment of the Catholic hierarchy in Scotland by Pope Leo XIII at the beginning of his pontificate in 1878 did spark sectarian tensions within the Kirk. It reached its nadir in 1923 when the General Assembly massively endorsed the wholly reprehensible report “The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality” Such official attitudes only waned in the post-war period when the church saw what had resulted from Nazi eugenics and of their dangerous warbling about a “volk-kirche”. But it was not until 1986, after a bitter debate in the General Assembly, that some of us managed to have the Kirk repudiate the Westminster Confession’s abuse of Catholicism. In the years following denominational tensions subsided and the Kirk and the Catholic Church became founder members of ecumenical bodies such as Churches Together. Relations between church leaders are now very cordial and though communal tensions remain they no longer affect jobs and are pretty much restricted to football supporters. In view of this, rushing through laws replete with unintended consequences to curb what a few thousand head-bangers shout at each other on Saturday seems rather excessive.
Wimbledon (Wed 29th June)
For much of the year I find tennis about as riveting as equestrian dressage but it is Wimbledon fortnight and I have succumbed to Britain’s annual feast of masochism. It has not been the same since the divine Gabriela Sabatini was replaced by the scary Williams sisters and these Central European harpies with their Neanderthal grunts. As Wodehouse said, it would not be hard to distinguish between a ray of sunshine and Andy Murray – accompanied as ever by his famous mother Lady Macbeth. Brigadier Tony (Henman) sat for years in the centre court box displaying all the emotion of an Easter Island monolith whereas Lady Judy is Monk’s “Scream” incarnate. But my viewing highlight was the Duchess of Cambridge in a white outfit (as per the local dress code) looking so much more attractive than any of the apparitions on court.
Justice for the Pilots (Tues 19th July)
It is rare for the Kirk’s military padres to unite in protest over a Ministry of Defence report but that resulting from the 1994 Chinook crash was such an occasion. We found it quite extraordinary that the initial board of inquiry findings were ordered to be ‘altered’ by two senior RAF officers who had not taken part in the inquiry. We were also aware the Chinook involved was a newly introduced version which had been plagued with serious technical problems for which the RAF had demanded compensation. Chaplains like me with a science background knew the computer system was a serious concern as there was no manual override to allow control of the engines if it shut down. In fact the day before the crash, MoD test pilots at Boscombe Down had refused to fly the Chinook until its engines; engine control systems and FADEC software were rectified. In the last 40 years helicopters have killed more SAS men than any other cause and these vehicles are lethal at low level in adverse weather and light conditions. Queen’s regulations are at pains to emphasise ‘there must be no doubt whatsoever’ that aircrew alone caused a crash before any verdict of gross negligence can be issued. As no black box had been installed it was manifestly impossible for the air marshals to know exactly what occurred on the flight deck in those last fatal seconds. Their insistence that the pilots Tapper and Cook were grossly negligent was a clear breach of natural justice. Defence secretary Liam Fox is to be commended for righting a wrong which Labour refused to do and the Kirk is to be commended for its persistent support of the pilots.
Toxic intervention (Thurs 20th July)
Today Islamic liberalism is almost an oxymoron but it was not always so and as the Ottoman Empire collapsed a century ago there were great hopes of a renaissance. The Young Ottomans were deeply religious pragmatists who were sure a Muslim version of western liberal democracy could be introduced into the Islamic Crescent. Ironically they were appalled by racist Europe’s virulent anti-sematism but believed this evil would be countered by the tolerance inherent in the original Quran. Tragically, the last gasp of European colonialism in the former Ottoman Empire led to medieval hadiths (sayings attributed to the Prophet) becoming revolutionary themes. Most of what frightens us in modern Islam is a reaction to our past interference and our present predilection for “bombing Arabia into democracy” is entirely counter-productive.
Losing the “war on drugs” (Tues 26th July)
It has been said that those like me who were undergraduates in California in the years before Vietnam were as close to heaven on earth as humanity has ever come. I graduated in 1964 and spent the summer before my return in San Francisco’s Haight-Ashbury when the drug of choice was still Napa Valley wine rather than marijuana. It was the explosion of narcotics use among returning Vietnam conscripts in the late 1960s which led Richard Nixon 40 years ago to launch his ill-fated “war on drugs”. Yet British troops returned from the Great War addicted to more than cigarettes but we wisely separated the punishment of cocaine suppliers from the treatment of their victims. To keep British users within mainstream society and in work they received prescribed drugs from doctors and this enlightened system kept their numbers low for decades. But this is not the American way and narcotics “Prohibition” was introduced even though its methods had proved a disaster with alcohol and on this occasion we blindly followed. In the years after the UK’s 1971 Misuse of Drugs Act, the number of dependent heroin users soared and today we have by far the highest level of dependent drug use in Europe. Four decades on, there is almost universal agreement that the war on drugs has failed just as thoroughly as all the other pretentious “wars” on terror, poverty and want. America has not only created a nightmare world for its urban underclass but has allowed its vast narcotics trade to effectively destroy Mexico and other nations in South America. It is this catastrophic Anglo-American legislative failure that has led to demands from the Global Commission on Drug Policy for a complete policy rethink on narcotics. Yet Gordon Brown still sacked his “drugs adviser” David Nutt for pointing out that “the obscenity of hunting down low-level cannabis users to protect them is beyond absurd”. As with alcohol, narcotics prohibition has cost billions yet has vastly increased usage causing innumerable deaths and filling our jails whilst fuelling crime at home and abroad. It is manifestly obvious we need another approach which takes power out of the hands of organised crime and treats people with addiction problems like patients and not criminals. All the arguments against decriminalizing narcotics were rehearsed in the years before the ending of alcohol prohibition and they make no more sense now than they did then.
Hate in a Cold Climate (Wed 27th July)
After the Viking era, Norwegians spent much of their history as impoverished second-class citizens under the lash of Sweden, Denmark and finally Nazi Germany. Today it is best known for the stark beauty of its coastline, disturbing paintings like “The Scream” and for choosing some very weird Nobel Peace Prizewinners. The discovery of oil increased its isolation because its new petro-currency made it prohibitively expensive for tourists – but that was how most Norwegians preferred it. They did not want to spoil their lonely idyll by joining the EU or becoming multicultural and the recent influx of Islamic refugees was met with fierce anti-immigration rhetoric. Europe has been greatly exercised about young Islamic men being radicalised online but the internet’s potential to produce lone wolves from the far-right has gone unnoticed. Breivik’s posts reveal an obsession with the old fascist issues of “volk und vaterland” especially the perceived cultural threats of immigration in general and Islam in particular. He may have acted in isolation, but we need to be aware that Breivik’s ideas are part of a European sub-culture and many of our racist demons have yet to be confronted.
EU Nightmare (Thurs 28th July)
Edward Heath, François Mitterrand and Jacques Delors were the dreamers who believed a single currency could cement the political and fiscal integration of Europe. Margaret Thatcher, the ultimate bourgeois realist, derided such a vision as “cloud cuckoo land” and at the 1990 European summit rightly said they had the cart before the horse. When opposed by all her fellow heads of government she threatened to use the UK’s veto but was ambushed and deposed by her own party and the calamitous project continued.
Thatcher has lived on to see her contention that complete political union must precede a common currency (as occurred in the United States of America) entirely justified. At present the EU, far from being a simple free-trade organisation, is a bloated nightmare of bureaucratic sleaze and financial chaos whose accounts auditors regularly refuse to sign. The disgraceful Common Agricultural Policy, going mainly to French farmers, accounts for half the budget, ramps up food prices and blocks imports from Third World farmers. For all its armies of obscenely over-paid officials, the EU is rudderless, interfering, inept and dithering – a byword for unaccountability, incompetence and impenetrability. It is known that George Washington believed a United States of Europe was possible on the American model but the latter began as a lightly inhabited wilderness. In contrast, Europe is a collection of old nation states bounded by the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, the Black and Mediterranean Seas and the Ural and Caucasus Mountains. And Teddy Roosevelt, the architect of modern America, insisted on a common language as he knew it was far more than mere communication but reflected a shared mind-set. The only states with a sufficiently common culture, work ethic and language to unite are a revamped “Greater Germany” of Austria, Flanders, Germany, Holland and Luxemburg. It is possible that this could be augmented later by Proto-German speaking areas such as Scandinavia and Switzerland and perhaps even Lombardy and Finland. Since it is better to have a nightmare solution than an endless nightmare, “The Five” should bite the bullet, leave the eurozone and reconstitute the deutschmark. The surge in value of the new DM would probably require a bailout of their banks but that would be politically more acceptable than bailing out irresponsible peripheral banks. Once divorce from the euro is complete, this natural union will have the fiscal freedom to offset export and external shocks by running large government budget deficits for a time. France along with the Club Med banana republics and the rest of the zone could retain a greatly devalued euro giving a huge boost to their competitiveness in trade and tourism. The resulting instability would require some sort of central bank to backstop their bonds but the antic of this collection of shambolic southern states would hardly threaten world finance.
We need a new foreign policy (Tues 2nd Aug)
The final collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the close of the First World War was bound to create considerable turmoil but it took the Anglo-French to make it a total disaster. Britain and France were perhaps the most mendacious and ruthlessly competitive of all the European imperial powers and had been squabbling for centuries over colonies. Edward House, President Wilson’s foreign adviser, encouraged American support for the Anglo-French but by the war’s end he had concluded both were wholly untrustworthy. As the Versailles Treaty ended Europe’s “war to end war” with a “peace to end peace”, an unsavory bunch of Anglo-French “diplomats” were busy poisoning the Middle East. The malign Sykes-Picot treaty drew a line from Acre on the Mediterranean to Kirkuk in the Persian oilfields with everything north going to the French and the rest to Britain. We demanded “undisputed control of the greatest possible amount of petroleum”, which meant Iraq, a pipeline route through Palestine and hegemony over much of Arabia. The Levant was thus parcelled up to suit Anglo-French convenience with no regard for ethnic and tribal identity making it, as House warned, “a breeding place for future war”. After the absurd 1917 Balfour declaration, the British managed to equally infuriate both local Arab communities and Jewish immigrants with results that still fester on. It has also become the norm in recent years for UK governments of all hues to engage in absurd wars in the Middle East with no measurable objectives or quantifiable goals. With the departure of ex-servicemen like Whitelaw and Healey, no restraining hand has been laid on Blair, Brown and Cameron as they embarked on their mad-cap adventures. They blundered into Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya at vast cost both in money and soldiers lives and have done little more than produce mayhem, rubble and dead civilians. With American help, we have destabilized most of the Islamic Crescent with our unerring instinct for backing the side most likely to increase corruption and religious intolerance. We need an entirely new foreign policy because as Joanne McNally indicated last week, the current one is as morally and politically bankrupt as any seen in our old colonial era.
Curbing the internet (Wed 3rd Aug)
As the most populous democracy and the inheritor of an ancient, fabulous civilisation, India has an increasing impact on every aspect of humanity’s intellectual development. We should therefore take note of its attempts to balance a wish to retain freedom of expression on the internet with a need to curb its plots, obscenity and defamation. New Indian regulations will make Web sites, search engines and service providers liable for objectionable material which must be removed within 36 hours of notification. Internet cafes will also be required to install surveillance cameras and must keep a record of each customer’s identification and their browsing activity for the authorities. Predictably critics are outraged saying the rules give the state power to introduce blanket surveillance and will force all internet providers to toe the government line. Yet after the attacks in Mumbai, police found vital clues to the bombings in cyber cafes and say tighter rules would deter such activity and help them with their inquiries. On the other hand, anti-corruption crusaders have used the internet to mobilize thousands of people across India to protest a series of graft scandals engulfing the government. This is a conundrum Europe will have to face because similar surveillance would have given the authorities early warning of the London bombings and the Norwegian atrocity. At the same time we need a free internet now that our supine judiciary routinely gives ‘contra mundum’ injunctions to hide the nefarious conduct of the rich and powerful. It used to be said “As goes America, so goes Britain” but it will be intriguing if we now look east rather than west and glimpse the future in our other, giant, former colony.
Fiasco in Libya (Thurs 4th Aug)
By the time I finished my schooling, the imperial pink of the British Empire was fading on the wall maps and Kipling half-century old prediction was already coming true. “Far-called our navies melt away, on dune and headland sinks the fire; lo, all our pomp of yesterday, is one with Nineveh and Tyre.” – yet a new Elizabethan age seemed to beckon. Another half century on it is disturbing how resilient that colonial gene has been in the generations of politicians who have strutted their ridiculous stuff across my adult life. David Cameron’s reckless gesture in Libya with his absurd little French friend is now a full scale fiasco and it is only a matter of time before British boots are on the ground. Our recognition of the Transitional Council, a hotchpotch of unsavory tribal chiefs and murderous al-Quaeda placemen, was pretty crass even by our own low standards. And there remains no sign that our terror-bombing of civilian areas is contributing to victory any more effectively than that of Arthur Harris and Winston Churchill. Our boys will soon be dying to “keep the peace” in a shambles entirely of our making and like Suez but unlike Helmand, there will be no Americans on hand to bail us out. How did we get here? Where were the checks and balances? When the red lights flashed in Germany and Turkey did they not flash in Whitehall? Where were our “diplomats”? Like Blair, Cameron had no experience of war and none of the military nous required to see that if that our army wanted no part of the operation, he had a big problem. He assigned Libya to the RAF and the Navy, giving control to two services without an iota of strategic sense but each desperate to show its latest bit of expensive kit can be of use. Yet it is parliament, as silent and feeble over Libya as over Iraq though consumed with ridiculous hysteria at the Murdoch press, which must shoulder a great deal of the blame.
School grade inflation (Tues 9th Aug)
Politicians love hyperbole such as Alex Salmond’s claim of 100% renewable energy in a decade and Gordon Brown’s to have conquered “boom and bust” and saved the world. Yet Education Secretary Mike Russell set new standards with his assertion that Scotland, alone in the English-speaking world, has not dumbed-down its school qualifications. This was in response to unkind comment that the Standard Grades’ pass rate of 98.5% was an acceptance figure unmatched in Europe since Adolf Hitler’s plebiscites. The universities and the CBI also observed they needed to run remedial courses for holders of Highers in Maths and English who appeared barely literate or numerate. In fact the first serious study of school grade inflation in England by Durham University concluded that an A pass at A Level in 2009 was equivalent to a C pass in 1989. It would be completely disingenuous for the Scottish government to believe our Highers have not suffered similar degradation whatever staff may feel obliged to say in public. Pass rates have increased every year for the last three decades and yet the OECD has noted we are falling further and further behind other nations in Maths and Science. Fundamental reform is simply not possible with the present ensemble of complacent local authority leaders and Holyrood’s revolving-door Ministers of Education. Reacting to disastrous OECD surveys by bailing out of them or to the existence of “failing schools” by banning the use of such a description is an infantile response. Parents know that teachers need liberation from town hall pen-pushers but the main teaching union claims they will be “distracted” if they are given more responsibility. The Curriculum for Excellence is pure spin and the new “Nationals” will permit a child to pass through the entire system without ever taking an externally-assessed exam. Yet Scottish education in the 1950s let me rise from a mining village school through the local high school to a leading university in a tsunami of other bright working-class kids. Recently there has been no lack of trendy initiatives designed to remedy state school problems and lift the life chances of children from the industrial graveyards of Scotland. Everything in fact except what was critical in my escape: iron discipline, a strong work-ethic and the “three Rs” as the door-opening passport to a fulfilling life and career.
Reaction to the Riots (Thurs 11th Aug)
There is a pernicious spirit of entitlement and instant gratification, transcending race and class, infecting the current generation of urban youth in Britain. And this is driven on by an army of politically-correct apologists, pandering to their shallow juvenile whims and offering an orgy of excuses on their behalf. We are expected to believe that these rampaging hooligans are motivated by their rage at inequality, deprivation, unemployment, police brutality and ‘Tory cuts’. It is nothing of the sort. In recent years there have been disgraceful scenes in the capital where the perpetrators have largely been white, privileged middle-class students. What we witness in every “protest” is not a political act or a cry for social justice but a despicable mixture of mindless criminality and opportunistic looting. With such things as Twitter, any demonstration can be hijacked by anarchistic thugs and perhaps it is time we saw these “social” networking sites for what they are: “anti-social”. The victims of this mayhem are law-abiding, hard-working local citizens – black, white and Asian – who have been made homeless or had their livelihoods ruined. The riots should have been met by a strong, rapid response with water cannon and tear gas but police moral has been undermined by our supine courts and politicians. Only fully signed-up members of the “light-touch” school are promoted to senior positions so it is absurd to reproach the police for acting in a style we imposed. The Scarman, Macpherson and other reactionary reports from the bien pensant led to policemen being “retrained” and feeling that avoidance is safer than involvement. Yet police injuries show we still have brave people in the force but too often they are led by senior officers imbued with the crass “sociology” expounded at our police colleges. I remember New York when it was a jungle but that was transformed when Mayor Giuliani encouraged the police to adopt an aggressive enforcement/deterrent strategy. Boris Johnson is just as much a free spirit as Giuliani and he would have a much more valued place in history as the man who cleaned up London than the next Tory leader.
School Trips (Tues 16th Aug)
The news that a British schoolboy was killed by a polar bear and four others seriously injured brings into sharp focus the dangers of adventure trips to wilderness areas. Longyearbyen, an old mining village on the bleak Norwegian island of Spitsbergen, is the most northerly settlement with a population greater than 1,000 souls. It is the meeting place for cold polar air and the wet sea air from the south, creating fast-changing, low-pressure weather with fog and bitter winds even in high summer. Polar bears are its iconic symbol but they are extremely dangerous and fatal attacks on humans occur frequently so that everyone is required to carry a high-powered rifle. The British Schools Exploring Society was warned repeatedly that they should use guard dogs and an armed lookout but decided to rely on tripwires triggering explosive flares. On their August expedition the party did have a rifle and a flare gun but they did not test them as the local tourism chief Stein Pedersen had strongly advised. Their final disastrous decision was to camp on rocky ground which meant that the stakes holding the trip wire were not anchored properly and were just propped up with stones. When the bear pushed through the tripwire, the stakes were simply knocked over without forcing out the pin triggering an explosion to sound the alert and scare away the animal. The flare gun also failed and group leader Michael Reid only managed to get the rifle to fire at the fifth attempt by which time a child was dead and others terribly injured. The rifle was the old Mauser 98 firing the traditional 30 caliber cartridge of 1906 (the famous 30-06) which is still an excellent weapon but it must be cleaned and tested. BSES will almost certainly face criminal proceedings for negligence and the local police are said to be less than happy with their cavalier approach to team safety. The company has “form” having been fined £1,200 last summer when they burnt down a Spitsbergen emergency shelter by “leaving embers in a flammable place”. Providing young people with “self-discovery in the last true wilderness environments” is an admirable aim but bringing them back alive requires “due care and attention”.
Gaddafi is not all bad (Wed 17th Aug)
When we hounded Saddam out of office Tony Blair thought Iraq had entered broad sunlit uplands and would soon be a peaceful, prosperous democracy. Thus David Cameron’s claim that the fall of Gaddafi will be met with flowers and chocolates all round in Libya gives me a sinking feeling of déjà vu. The idea that Benghazi forces will occupy Tripoli and be welcomed as ‘liberators’ by their old tribal enemies is as likely as Berliners embracing the Russians in 1945. We must expect scenes of revenge and retribution, tribal warfare, extra judicial killings and Sharia law with religious freedom and women’s rights gone for good. Already the fear that al-Quaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood will soon be in control has led to the Copts and other minorities taking to rickety boats and heading for Italy. Tripolitania was an independent state at times in the last century and is very much more European and secular than the Islamist rebel area of Cyrenaica. Our interest in this inter-tribal dispute has its roots in the reign of King Idris who was the Emir of Cyrenaica before we installed him in 1951 as the puppet ruler of Libya. He did our bidding till 1969 when he was ejected in a bloodless coup by the Tripolitanian Colonel Gaddafi who thus earned our undying enmity. Our press dubs him ‘The Mad Gaddafi’ yet his 42 years in power make him one of the longest-serving non-royal rulers and, by African standards, his rule was not at all bad. He gave one of the poorest nations in the region food security by irrigating the desert and ensured water supply to all urban areas until NATO bombed the pumping stations. Libya had free healthcare, state housing and education up to and including university so its welfare service was considerably more comprehensive than our own. In spite of Cameron’s claim that Gaddafi has no support, it is clear many heed Belloc’s advice: ‘Always keep ahold of Nurse for fear of finding something worse’. Whether to settle old scores or in a fit of absence of mind, we recognised this rag-bag of Islamist rebels and eastern tribalists as Libya’s legitimate government. The outcome for Tripoli is bleak and it is clear we have again shown our unerring ability to back the side most likely to increase religious intolerance and deny human rights.
Shark Attack (Tues 23rd Aug)
I was a surfing addict when I lived in California in my late teens and early twenties and we constantly discussed sharks and the various ways of avoiding attack. Some surfers and divers feel safer in a wet suit which presents less open flesh but it would be dangerous to count on a curious shark not having an exploratory bite. In general we would avoid surfing alone at dawn or dusk when sharks tend to feed and areas inhabited by prey animals (such as seals) or where fish remains have been dumped. This practice – known as ‘chumming’ – is increasingly used by boatmen in coastal resorts to lure sharks closer to the shore to thrill their clients but it places even paddlers at risk. In July a girl wading in 3 feet of water at a US beach was attacked and without a shark net round the beach – whatever the tourist reps may say – your children are in danger. Most shoreline attacks involve the Great White, Bull and Tiger sharks but Jacques Cousteau considered the open water Oceanic Whitetip the most dangerous of all. However other large sharks such as the Mako, Hammerhead, Galapagos, Lemon, Silky, Blue and the various Reef sharks have all attacked humans and are dangerous. It is also not widely known that the freshwater range of Bull sharks will attack far up-river in tropical regions and the river systems of India are infested with the Ganges shark. The number of fatal shark attacks worldwide is uncertain because the vast majority of third world coastal nations do not officially report attacks on locals and fishermen. Two thirds of “reported” attacks occur in the USA and most of the rest in South Africa and Australia but it is clear that a vast number go unreported worldwide. Seychelles tourism boss, Alain St Ange, claimed Ian Redmond’s death was a freak attack by a ‘foreign shark’ but it was not all that rare and sharks do not have nationalities. The fact is that swimmers are at risk in most of the coastal and coastal river resorts of the developing world and the tendency for tourist authorities to cover this up is intolerable.
Scottish Education (Wed 24th Aug)
We Scots often talk about our proud tradition of free university education but as with many Scottish “traditions” it has a fairly short history and dates back only to the end of the Second World War. The maintenance grant was an even more fleeting phenomenon lasting a mere from 30 years from 1961 but is fondly remembered by the tiny percentage of the population who benefitted. The recent explosion of tertiary education and the proliferation of what Billy Connolly unkindly but not unfairly called “pretendy universities” created financial mayhem. Alex Salmond, for reasons best known to himself, has always refused to admit the true extent of the funding gap faced by Scotland’s plethora of universities and colleges. Instead he introduced a cunning plan to close the gap by making English students pay full tuition fees of £9,000 while Scottish and other EU students continue go for free. Under EU rules, governments cannot discriminate against students from any other EU state but as Scotland is only a region within the UK, he argues such rules do not apply. It also has the delicious side effect of being extremely annoying to the English in general and Boris Johnson and the Home Counties in particular. It is of course a dangerous ploy and is now to be challenged by Phil Shiner, the leading British human rights lawyer and a legal expert of international repute. Shiner quoted a former Education secretary who said, “Discrimination on the basis of nationality is unacceptable and it is high time the government stopped defending the indefensible. Such discrimination is not only wrong in principle; it also damages the reputation of Scotland’s higher education system and undermines the Scottish four-year degree.” And who was the former education secretary: why none other than our own Nicola Sturgeon, Deputy First Minister of Scotland and SNP Secretary for just about everything.
DSK (Thurs 25th Aug)
The case appears to be over and Dominique Strauss-Kahn will return to France and may even be acclaimed for his “triumph” over the egregious elements of American justice. It appears as if he was not so much guilty of rape as of not paying a “working girl” for services rendered which I suppose it not quite as bad but is still pretty unsavory. France being France, he may be able to kick-start his career in national politics but I suspect his days as a major international diplomat ended with his “perp walk”. In the end, US prosecutors were forced to admit to Strauss-Kahn’s lawyers that they knew within days the hotel maid was an inveterate liar and involved in criminal activity. Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance’s case collapsed when his “rape victim” used the Brooklyn hotel in which he had placed her to continue her part-time job as a sex worker. She was also recorded phoning (in Guinean dialect) a drug-dealer colleague in an American jail saying, “Don’t worry, this guy has lots of money. I know what I am doing.” The prosecutors now believe that regular extra-curricular activities in the bedrooms of the Sofitel Hotel were the source of the $100,000 in her bank account. Well, that’s all very fine but she has done irreparable damage to rape victims everywhere who may find that they, more than the accused, will once again become the target. Legal protection for rape victims, so hard won by feminists and sympathetic male jurists, such as rape shield laws and the removal of corroboration requirements are in jeopardy. The international scope of this seedy episode cannot be underestimated and many victims already scared to come forward, will lose all hope of seeing their abuser convicted.
R2P Report (Tues 30th Aug)
The charter of the African Union claims the right of the AU to intervene in member states to protect populations against war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. This followed the international community’s clear failure to act in the Rwanda genocide and the much debated UN report “The Responsibility to Protect” (R2P). This report is rooted in the work of Hillary Clinton’s policy planning chief, Anne-Marie Slaughter, a fierce critic of US passivity in the face of genocide dating back to the Nazis. She had called for a new Wilsonian agenda of supporting global security by spreading western values through international law, alliances of democracies and the market. R2P first achieved official recognition at the 2005 UN world summit which decided it had a responsibility to protect populations suffering gross human rights violations. The Security Council’s resolution 1973, the basis for NATO’s intervention in Libya, would appear to indicate that R2P is now the UN’s default position in world politics. I have considerable reservations with this development because the difference between R2P and the neo-imperial meddling of George Bush and Tony Blair is far from obvious. Both are pre-emptive and both ask the public to trust policymakers and their knowledge of what is happening on the ground – which is a big ask! I would be more reassured if I thought anyone in Washington, London and Paris had the remotest clue about Libya and the rag-bag rebel “government” they have recognised. There is also a troubling selectivity because who decides when R2P should be applied? Why Gaddafi and not Assad? Would America ever accept R2P might apply in Gaza? Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy displayed an extraordinary self-belief in their own moral rectitude when bombing Libya which I suspect many Muslims may not share.
Roof over our heads (Thurs 1st Sept)
The National Housing Federation predicts British home ownership will fall to its lowest level since 1980 and become the preserve of better-off families. It also claims that those locked out of the property market face a future of soaring rents, limited rental stock and state housing waiting lists at record levels. From a national perspective ownership rates go from a whopping 90% in Singapore down to 40% in Germany, 50% in Holland with the English-speaking nations around two thirds. I was in the odd position of living for 35 years in a tied house – my fabulous manse in Broughty Ferry – before retiring to a small flat near the Old Course in St Andrews. But, having also been a “son of the manse”, I had a mind-set closer to the Germans and did not feel deprived to be bringing up a family in a house which did not belong to me. Of course renting, even for the Germans, is not necessarily the cheap option and in major cities like Hamburg, Cologne and Munich, tenants spend up to half their wages on rent. But Germans do not appear to be as frustrated as Brits if they cannot get on the property ladder and the difference in attitude reflects the difference in the housing markets. There is an excellent supply of good quality rental stock with housing associations and municipal authorities holding 15%, housing firms 10% and private investors the rest. In fact selling off state housing was one the few things done by the Blessed Margaret I opposed and not replacing the stock was one of New Labour’s greatest failures. Over the past 10 years, the endless roller-coaster of UK residential property prices has nearly doubled while in Germany they have only risen about 2 per cent. In part this is due to Germany having stringent lending requirements with a deposit of 20% and proof of years of good earnings thus avoiding the lunacy seen in the UK. Finally, German tenants get a much better deal not only from a greater choice of stock but more transparent transactions and serious support from various tenants’ associations. With real prices falling, it is hardly surprising there is no rush to owner-occupation but an acceptance that savings and settled maturity will finally make it possible.
The Class War (Tues 6th Sept)
A remarkable aspect of the urban riots was the general assumption that Britain is home to a vast, respectable middle class with this frightful underclass lurking down in the cellar. Yet when Jilly Cooper produced her waspish commentary “Class” in 1979, three quarters of the population still proclaimed themselves to be “working class and proud of it”. During the long Thatcher/Blair era we adopted the American habit of referring to nearly everyone as “middle class” – even New Labour’s national treasure, John Prescott. However, although our mainline political parties espouse the convenient myth that class is dead, birth determines destiny with a far greater certainty than it did half a century ago. In the post-war period, high rates of literary and numeracy allied with selective education produced a social mobility of which we in the 21st century can only dream. Yet the disappearance of working class pride was not driven solely by education because my mining village pals did not feel defeated or demeaned when I went off to high school. I was known to be a bit odd and to read weird stuff like poetry and they turned in relief to prepare for the real world of work in the tool-packed trade rooms of the junior secondary. The change had more to do, I believe, with a basic flaw the bien pensant inserted into the welfare state: the premise that the working classes could not look after themselves. This had an infantilising effect and undermined the deeply conservative way this proud class handled such key aspects of family life as illegitimacy and paternal responsibility. On top of this came the execrable concept of political correctness whereby talk of “class” became unacceptable and the whole focus was shifted to other “conflicts”. In particular the Harmanesque school of New Labour speak redefined “equality” to mean gender and race equality while social and economic differences were ignored. The employment market now consists of two fairly static tiers: professional/managerial and skilled/semi-skilled trades plus an ever expanding “catch-all” tier of Mac Jobs. It could be argued that today one’s “class” is based on which tier one occupies and that our “all must have prizes” education is producing a rigid economic caste-system.
A Very British humour failure (Thurs 8th Sept)
My French grandmother returned to France just in time for the German Occupation so I have always had considerable sympathy for the wartime experiences of PG Wodehouse. Like her he did not take the thing very seriously – and from what she and my cousins told me, ‘Allo ‘Allo! is really a documentary – but other people took it very seriously indeed! Although Wodehouse and his novels are quintessentially English, he spent much of his adult life abroad and from1934 he lived in France, at his seaside home in Le Touquet. The Germans interned him as an “enemy alien” first in Belgium, then in Upper Silesia of which he said, “If this is Upper Silesia, one wonders what Lower Silesia must be like…” While there, he entertained fellow prisoners with witty pieces gently teasing the guards before being released in 1941 when he reached 60, as per the Geneva Convention. He settled in Paris where he ill-advisedly accepted a German invitation to broadcast several of these humorous dialogues to America (not then at war with Germany). To describe the British reaction as hysterical would be an understatement of the most sublime dimensions and he was accused of treason and libraries burned his books. He was unfortunate that the British ambassador in Paris after the Liberation was the martinet Alfred Duff Cooper whose loathsome socialite set gave him a very bad time. His saviour was the unlikely MI5 war-time agent, Malcolm Muggeridge, who conducted the investigation and dismissed all charges – a finding upheld later by a senior judge. Continued ridiculous ranting at home led Wodehouse and his wife to move permanently to the delightful hamlet of Remsenburg on Long Island never to visit his homeland again. After much campaigning by Evelyn Waugh and John Betjeman, he was recommended in 1967 for the Order of the Companions of Honour for outstanding literary achievement. This was blocked by Sir Patrick Dean, our ambassador in Washington, on the risible grounds that he was “giving currency to a Woosterish image of the British character.” Dean was a nasty bit of work involved in the notorious Yalta prisoner repatriation, the Nuremberg trials and the execrable British Control Commission in occupied Germany. Finally Betjeman’s old friend Mary Wilson prevailed upon her Prime Minister husband to have Wodehouse knighted in the 1975 New Year Honours shortly before his death. It was one of the few achievements worth recalling by Harold Wilson’s dysfunctional second government and a rare moment of light in the depressingly Sombre Seventies.
Reflections at Three Score Years and Ten (Tues 13th Sept)
I was born during the war and as my three score years and ten draw to a close, I see the old Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” fulfilled in those flying years. The decade and a half in Britain following the war were indescribably drab and dreary made endurable only by the indefatigable belief that things might be getting better. The Sixties I spent knocking about the universities of California and Scotland so I am bound to say they were fantastic: hedonistic idealism in an amoral paradise with great music. The Sombre Seventies were unquestionably the bleakest days I recall in the UK and, both at the time and in retrospect, starting a family as I did in the middle of that decade seemed a preposterous act of faith. I rather liked the can-do vulgarity of the Thatcher years and, along with many more Scots than ever seem willing to admit it, I did so well financially that I could coast comfortably home. I am too close to the last decade and a half to have any perspective save a sense of lost opportunities, of 9/11 and all that followed plus the slow-moving train-wreck that was Gordon Brown. “If by reason of strength” I live on a while longer I expect America to remain dominant in every way but the Pacific Rim, South-East Asia and South America to prosper. The European ability to regenerate from seemingly hopeless situations should not be discounted but to drive a recovery, some form of Grossdeutchland will need to separate itself from the linguistic and cultural nightmare of the eurozone. Though I will not live to see it, I am sure a bridge will be built across the Mediterranean from Iberia to a giant, peaceful Arab sūq where a blossoming Africa will trade with Western Europe. I believe Christianity will lose its European roots, the cultural side of Islam will replace today’s fervour and all the green panics of the present will go the way of the tulip mania. Sadly I also suspect that out there in the dark and endless sky is a giant asteroid with our name on it. Yet even as hope subsides, curiosity remains and human love and laughter do not lose their value because they are not everlasting.
The Darling Book (Wed 14th Sept)
Alistair Darling, the London-born, Lorettonian advocate from a relentlessly Tory family always struck me as a rather odd member of the Scottish Labour Party. Of course Tam Dalziel was there before and, as an Aberdeen student, Darling toyed with Trotskyism but I thought he was simply doing that to wind-up the folks back home. I recalled that Gordon Brown’s first act at the Edinburgh University Fresher’s Fayre had been to join the Atheist Party in a (successful) attempt to annoy his father. Darling’s gripping account of his three-year period as Chancellor is a good read and is hardly the act of vengeance against his former friend and boss it is portrayed to be. It is the wry reflections of an honourable public servant trying to remain detached from a drama being played out by ruthlessly ambitious politicians and economic ideologues. He explains with admirable clarity and succinctness why it was right for governments all over the world to borrow through the crisis and to still keep borrowing today. He also delineates the differences between banks and other business and why the former sometimes need to be bailed out with public money. I am not entirely convinced that the whole economic philosophy of the Thatcher-Reagan free market capitalism has been permanently transformed by this crisis. Nor do I believe his argument that Labour could have used this moment as an opportunity to present a convincing programme of active government. His forlorn hope that Gordon Brown would acknowledge the necessity of reductions in public borrowing ignores Brown’s total inability to admit mistakes. Once the worst was over, Darling sensibly wanted to supplement short-term stimuli with a long-term plan for deficit reduction by spelling out specific spending cuts. He also wanted to phase in VAT increases so as to avoid crushing the economy and creating needless inflationary pressure. Brown, however, vetoed Darling’s prudent Keynesian agenda in favour of his Manichean slogan: “Tory cuts versus Labour investment” – and their time in office was over.
Black marks for green jobs (Tues 20th Sept)
The persistent use of the term “dirty” to power produced by fossil fuel is a blatant attempt to frame climate change as a “moral issue” and thus impervious to rational analysis. Crucial experiments are taking place at the European organization for nuclear research (CERN) into the link between solar activity, cosmic rays and the Earth’s cloud cover. The results of these experiments strongly suggest that solar activity is far more important to global climate variation than human greenhouse-gas emissions. This not only appears to put a tungsten nail in the coffin of the “official” science, but pulls the rug from the alleged need for vastly expensive renewable energy schemes. An academic study by economics Professor Gordon Hughes of Edinburgh University is the latest to point out that the green employment emperor has no clothes. As a former advisor on energy and environmental policy to the World Bank, he will be hard to write off as a “denier” or as a clone of renegade tobacco and medical scientists. His report The Myth of Green Jobs, argues that green policies boost inflation and lower growth since renewable capital costs are up to 10 times those of conventional energy. Present U.K. policies entail the diversion of £120-billion from productive investment elsewhere and higher energy costs will cause companies to relocate or go under. In this he is supported by the Danish Centre for Political Studies (CEPOS) which found that creating employment in one sector through subsidies detracted labor from others. This resulted in no increase in net employment but simply a transfer of employment from the non-subsidized private sector to the subsidized neo-public sector. Spanish economist Gabriel Calzada also analyzed the subsidized expenditure necessary to create green jobs compared to private expenditure needed to support conventional jobs. He concluded that each subsidized green job in Spain eliminated over two conventional jobs and this ratio is supported by every other major national study in Europe. The intent of a subsidy should be to increase the production of a good or service that is underprovided by the market and this is most certainly not the case with energy. The market, not taxpayer-funded industries, provides the most affordable energy while mandates, subsidies and preferential treatment benefit the few at the expense of many. Finally, the claim by Alex Salmond that Scotland will be able to create comparative advantage in renewable energy is the most risible scientific and economic illusion.
The Eurasian Phoenix (Wed 21st Sept)
President Truman’s incomparable Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, was spot on when he commented in 1950 that “Britain has lost an Empire but had not yet found a role”. For much of the 20th century, the same could be said of Turkey whose fabulous Ottoman Empire peaked in the 16th and 17th centuries before starting its long decline. Modern Turkey was immensely fortunate to have as its architect Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the military commander who made Winston Churchill look ridiculous at Gallipoli. He became the new republic’s first president and was responsible for many radical reforms, founding a new secular republic from the remnants of its Ottoman past. Islamic law was separated from secular law, its religious courts were closed, and women were freed from the veil and given equality in such matters as inheritance and divorce. The entry of girls into the professions was established with the unification of education because Atatürk believed modern civilisation required gender separation to cease. To combat a 90% illiteracy rate he replaced the old Arabic script with the Latin alphabet raising literacy to over 70% in two years – an act of inestimable benefit to the nation. Yet for decades a thoroughly modernized, secular Turkey knocked in vain at Europe’s door being disdainfully rebuffed for all manner of foolish and insulting reasons. That is over and today, the turmoil in the Levant caused by Western military interference and the convulsions known as the Arab Spring has created new opportunities for Turkey. It is the coming Middle Eastern power with the canny veteran Recep Erdoğan’s strong, democratic, mildly Islamic government ruling 80 million increasingly prosperous people. Erdoğan is sparing no effort to broaden Turkey’s regional appeal and in a hopeful sign he strongly endorses secularism to the chagrin of Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood. Israel must take his escalating hostility seriously because unlike the PLO and Hamas gad-flies, losing one’s most powerful regional ally would constitute a situation of real gravity. Europeans should also note that Turkey has turned its back on them and is resurrecting the old Ottoman strategy of aligning its interests with those of the Arab World. The belief that Palestinian land “was stolen to create a Jewish state in order to assuage the guilt of the Holocaust” is one of the most pervasive and unhelpful Middle Eastern myths.
The CERN Cloud Experiment (Thurs 22nd Sept)
The theory of late 20th century global warming popularized by Al Gore is that the phenomenon was caused predominantly by industrial greenhouse gases – especially CO2. It is highly unlikely that trace elements of such gases are solely responsible as Paleo-climate reconstructions find comparable climate variations throughout the whole of the Holocene (last 10,000 years). These reconstructions also show clear associations with the solar variability recorded in the light radio-isotope archives measuring past changes in cosmic ray intensity. However, despite clear evidence of a solar-climate link, the estimated changes of solar irradiance were judged to be too small to account directly for the climate variations. It was argued there must be some sort of indirect solar forcing mechanism and finally satellite observations suggested cosmic rays might be affecting cloud formation. In 1997, the Cosmo-climatologists Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen of the Danish National Space Centre published their famous theory in the Physical Review. It is known that low-altitude clouds have a cooling effect on the Earth’s surface hence variations in cloud cover caused by cosmic rays can explain climate variations. In the late 20th Century, the Sun’s magnetic field which shields Earth from cosmic rays more than doubled, thereby reducing the average influx of cosmic rays. The resulting reduction in cloudiness, especially of low-altitude clouds, was clearly a significant factor in the global warming the Earth underwent during that period. However, there were no experimental results to confirm the Svensmark-Christensen theory such as evidence of a mechanism linking cosmic rays to cloud formation. The CERN particle-physics laboratory in Geneva, famous for studies of the fundamental constituents of matter, thus decided to devise experiments to test the theory. Researchers have just released results from these experiments which mimic conditions in the Earth’s atmosphere by firing beams of particles into a gas-filled chamber. They discovered that cosmic rays enhance the production of cloud-seeding aerosols thus confirming the rays do play a major role in cloud formation and climate change. Climate science is extremely complex (though it attracts its fair share of infantile responses) and readers can find CERN’s preliminary results in ‘Nature’
A Lose-Lose Situation (Tues 27th Sept)
The belief that Palestinian land ‘was stolen to create a Jewish state in order to assuage the guilt of the Holocaust’ is one of the most pervasive and unhelpful Middle Eastern myths. The UN partition plan made no reference to the Holocaust and the League of Nations had previously declared in favour of giving the whole of mandated Palestine to the Jews. The San Remo Conference in 1922 accepted the Jews’ historic claims of their continuous settlement in the country for 3,500 years in the face of repeated foreign conquerors. It was argued that, as the Arabs were to be given Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and North Africa, it seemed fair to return the small area of Palestine to its historical owners. However, for imperial reasons, Britain gave 85% of Palestine to the Hashemite family to create the Kingdom of Transjordan and gave the Golan Heights to Syria. A vote in the UN to upgrade the Palestinian status from ‘observer’ to full membership will not alter the realities on the ground nor help solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The vote will not assuage the gruelling Palestinian poverty or prevent the rampant corruption of its feeble leadership which swells its coffers at the expense of its own people. Hamas, with its visceral hatred of Israel, still tightens its grip on Gaza and one wonders how peace can ever be achieved amid such insurmountable obstacles.
Can’t Add, Doesn’t Even Try (Wed 28th Sept)
My first experience of computers took place in the early 1960s with the notorious IBM 1620 leaving me with a deep suspicion of anyone who believes IT is always the answer. The hopelessly unreliable 1620 was nick-named the CADET (Can’t Add, Doesn’t Even Try) and proved a disaster in almost every technical and industrial application. My heart sank when I heard a decade ago that the NHS was setting up a computer project because I doubted anyone in the industry understood what the system was meant to do. When I told my three medical brothers it would be “text only”, they threw up their hands in horror at the thought of a system that could not process X-ray and other pictures. The public service jobsworths in charge of the project clearly had no understanding of computer architecture nor its capabilities and limitations and were soon out of their depth. In fact computers can do most of what large organisations (such as the NHS) want them to do but the “geeks” should have had long initial sessions with healthcare professionals. To design a system to meet its requirements, they needed to delve down deep into the fabric of the organisation to identify and to prioritise each element to be addressed. The NHS should perhaps have approached Oracle since they have systems like SQL which can meet the needs of such a central database administration. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs has developed an on-line patient data system that is the envy of all other healthcare providers. They used Defence Department IT planners to develope and deploy a patient profile model providing a complete patient history which can be updated from any VA facility. It is a massive networking, computing and storage environment located across the U.S. and its overseas territories and all healthcare providers have access to patient records. Sadly for Britain, the NHS is a sacred cow run by political hacks and appointees of such catatonic incompetence that the final bill for the disaster is likely to be £13 billion. Happily, the latest IT vanity-project disaster is a mere snip at £500 million: Tony Blair’s failed “FiReControl” system meant to mesh the 46 fire control centres in England and Wales.
Awaiting the Knox Verdict (Thurs 29th Sept)
After a highly controversial trial, Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito were convicted in Italy four years ago of the horrific murder of their friend Meredith Kercher. The process depended on confessions later retracted, dubious witnesses, suspect-driven investigations and marathon, night-time police interrogations of the two youngsters. Whilst one hopes that the Kercher family will finally attain some peace of mind there are a number of extremely disquieting aspects to this investigation and trial. On appeal, forensic testimony that the victim’s DNA was on the blade of the supposed murder weapon was dismissed as wholly unreliable by appeal-court appointed experts. Michael Mansfield, the great English defence lawyer, has long warned of the dangers of over-reliance on forensic evidence and this looks like another miscarriage of justice. British forensic science was certainly damaged by the part it played in the wrongful convictions of the Maguire Seven, the Birmingham Six and the Guildford Four. In Scotland, the “canteen culture” of its practioners was on display in the deplorable prosecutions of both Detective Constable Shirley McKie and Abdelbaset al-Megrahi. Clearly it is high time western judicial systems realized that, far from being immutable, forensic evidence must be treated with the same caution as witness identification. It was also disturbing to see Pope Innocent VIII’s 1486 witch-hunter’s manual, “Malleus Maleficarum” on display with its crazed beliefs about the dual nature of women. The celibate authors claimed, “A woman is beautiful to look upon, contaminating to the touch, deadly to keep and all witchcraft comes from her carnal lust which is insatiable”. I had not thought to hear such vile, medieval misogyny in a modern western court but the Italian lawyer Carlo Pacelli was allowed to besmirch Amanda Knox in similar terms. In a monstrous rant he claimed she was “a diabolical, satanic, demonic she-devil, dirty both inside and outside, with two souls only the clean one of which is on display.” Behind such accusations, regardless of whether the girl is a victim or a perpetrator, lie foul and infantile assumptions about women which are a disgrace to modern Europe.
Speed limit doubts (Tues 4th Oct)
Low motorway accident rates, real average speeds and police speed-enforcement guidelines have encouraged the transport secretary to consider raising the limit to 80 mph. Surveys show that on decongested motorways over half of car drivers exceed the limit, a fifth exceed 80 mph and police rarely prosecute drivers travelling below 80mph. Predictably the petrol-head Jeremy Clarkson claims it will be good for ‘our souls, polar bears and the economy’ while the green loonies rant about peak oil and frying the planet. In fact, when the limit was introduced in 1964, my seatbelt-less Ford Popular with its dodgy cable brakes and dire road-holding was pretty much flat out at 70mph. My present VW Golf Plus, a beautifully engineered but none-the-less routine modern European hatch, is hardly into its sixth and cruising gear at that speed. Of course the motorways in the south are the most congested in Europe and so actually achieving 70 mph can be a magic moment for some of my London relatives. However, legalising today’s tolerated, yet unofficial, 80 mph speed limit is likely to create tomorrows tolerated if unofficial 90 mph limit in Scotland and the provinces. Such speeds may not increase accident numbers but the severity will be worse and we could resemble Italy and Germany where it is rare to have a non-fatal motorway shunt. The answer might be to extend the controlled and managed motorway sections already in use on the M25 and M42 where the limit is set according to traffic flows and density. The technology is so advanced on these southern speed cameras and the enforcement so strict that very high levels of compliance are achieved whatever the speed limit imposed. There will need to be full risk assessment and additional roadside crash protection so the transport secretary should publish firm proposals with an extended consultation period.
The Knox Verdict (Wed 5th Oct)
The legal system in Italy is under the lash this week, both at home and abroad, but we in Scotland are hardly in a position to cast the first stone.
The Italian system is a mixture of Roman and French Napoleonic law and moves at a glacial pace with an average of 10 years between indictment and a court judgement. Its penal code was revised in 1990 when its old ‘inquisitory’ system was replaced by an ‘accusatory’ system but it still retains a reputation of being fiendishly complicated. The treatment Amanda Knox received in Italy has disquieting echoes of that accorded to Lindy Chamberlain in the spectacularly unfair Australian Dingo trial in 1980. There were clear gender-specific dimensions to the criticisms of both women of not being ‘sufficiently emotional’ and responding in an ‘odd and passive’ way to the events. Of more interest to Scotland are the parallels with the trial of Abdelbaset al Megrahi who, like Knox, suffered from national and racial stereotyping by the general public. British tabloids have a tendency to suspect all Muslim men of being bombers while their Italian counterparts present west coast American girls as drug-crazed sex maniacs. Of course in the 1950s it was a ‘well-known fact’ that all French and Swedish girls were sexually promiscuous but, as a Franco-Scot married to an Anglo-Swede, I beg to differ. The prosecutor, Giuliano Mignini, has form when it comes to concocting weird scenarios, and his descriptions of satanic rituals were reminiscent of our scandalous Orkney trials. The performance of the Italian forensic team was deplorable and on a par with that seen in the prosecutions of Detective Constable Shirley McKie and Abdelbaset al-Megrahi. Yet Italy can be proud that its system is self-righting while our judiciary still struggles to admit culpability in the manifestly unsafe verdicts on McKie and al-Megrahi. Listening to our law lords’ prevarications, Oliver Cromwell’s iconic query came to mind, ‘I beseech you in the bowels of Christ think it possible you may be mistaken?’
Unintended Consequences (Thurs 6th Oct)
The closing years of my career as a parish minister were clouded by the increasing difficulty I experienced in recruiting volunteers to help with church youth activities. Given the obstacles placed in the way of anyone wanting to help, I suppose it is hardly surprising that the number of people volunteering in Britain is drying up. A survey from the Office for National Statistics of the proportion of the population ‘engaged in civil participation’ showed a fall from 40 to 25% in the last decade. Undoubtedly the biggest disincentive to volunteering has been the increasingly onerous regulatory impositions on those who wish to give of their time. From football coaches to parents merely wishing to help out in their children’s school, millions of volunteers have been forced to submit to criminal record checks. Even elderly ladies volunteering their services as flower arrangers in English cathedrals open to the public on weekdays have found themselves caught up in this nonsense. While it is clearly important to keep children safe, this is unlikely to be achieved by discouraging well-meaning adults from helping out in their communities. A disproportionate obsession with health and safety and an irrational aversion to risk has made volunteering needlessly expensive, bureaucratic and intrusive. The root of the problem is partly the Human Rights Act and partly ‘big government’ with its mania for micro-managing the lives of everyone from cradle to grave. There is no need for CRB checks when what is required is a register of those convicted of the sort of offence which makes them unsuitable for work with children or the vulnerable. Having volunteers repeatedly waiting months for details of their past lives to be given to potential ’employers’ in an effort to exclude this minority is just plain daft. Only a jobsworth with a totalitarian mentality could have come up with such a mindless response to the tragic – but mercifully extremely rare – murder of innocents.
High-Tech Hero or Capitalist Swine? (11th Oct)
The death of Steve Jobs, the obsessive visionary who changed the face of the computing industry, reminded me of my early days in that strange half-world 50 years ago. As with so many 20th century technological innovations, the British picked up the ball and ran with it but then dropped it, leaving the US to make the money. It all started with Alan Turing at Bletchley Park during the last war and when the veil of secrecy was finally lifted I realized one of my older golfing buddies had worked there. I asked him, “Just how weird was Turing?” to which he replied that there were so many very odd people involved in early computing he did not really stand out. Churchill had the machines destroyed after the war on the risible grounds that the USSR might get to know (Russia knew all our secrets) but the dream survived. When I started working with computers during the early 1960s in St Andrew University, sporting a beard was compulsory even – as with the Pharaohs – for women. Scientists like me had to learn the computer language FORTRAN, write our own programmes and use the huge, ponderous machines supplied to us by America’s IBM. The IBM people, just as screwy as the geeks but in an entirely different way, dressed in company suits and were prone to start the day by singing from the company song book. As I wrote in an earlier article, I spent my nights on the “cheap and nasty” IBM 1620, a machine equipped with near-human characteristics of obtuseness and unreliability. My sanity was saved by the university acquiring the next generation computer, IBM 360, a serious piece of kit that allowed me to restart my stalled Physics PhD. Yet few who inhabited that parallel universe had an inkling of what was to come and it took Steve Jobs to realize personal computers must develop in the same way as cars. An entrepreneur rather than a geek, he saw that computers would have to be consumer-friendly because the mass-market was almost entirely made up of techno-illiterates. Founding Apple Computers in 1976, he drove the success of such iconic products as Next, Pixar, iMax, iPod, iTunes, iPhone and iPad in the face of severe market scepticism. Often mean and cruel, he was the model for Fox’s medic psychopath “House” yet in spite of such traits (or because of them) his place in the pantheon of capitalist gods is assured.
Global Warming (Oct 12th publication same as 22nd Sept)
The theory of late 20th century global warming popularized by Al Gore is that the phenomenon was caused predominantly by industrial greenhouse gases – especially CO2. It is highly unlikely that trace elements of such gases are solely responsible as Paleo-climate reconstructions find comparable climate variations throughout the whole of the Holocene (last 10,000 years). These reconstructions also show clear associations with the solar variability recorded in the light radio-isotope archives measuring past changes in cosmic ray intensity. However, despite clear evidence of a solar-climate link, the estimated changes of solar irradiance were judged to be too small to account directly for the climate variations. It was argued there must be some sort of indirect solar forcing mechanism and finally satellite observations suggested cosmic rays might be affecting cloud formation. In 1997, the Cosmo-climatologists Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen of the Danish National Space Centre published their famous theory in the Physical Review. It is known that low-altitude clouds have a cooling effect on the Earth’s surface hence variations in cloud cover caused by cosmic rays can explain climate variations. In the late 20th Century, the Sun’s magnetic field which shields Earth from cosmic rays more than doubled, thereby reducing the average influx of cosmic rays. The resulting reduction in cloudiness, especially of low-altitude clouds, was clearly a significant factor in the global warming the Earth underwent during that period. However, there were no experimental results to confirm the Svensmark-Christensen theory such as evidence of a mechanism linking cosmic rays to cloud formation. The CERN particle-physics laboratory in Geneva, famous for studies of the fundamental constituents of matter, thus decided to devise experiments to test the theory. Researchers have just released results from these experiments which mimic conditions in the Earth’s atmosphere by firing beams of particles into a gas-filled chamber. They discovered that cosmic rays enhance the production of cloud-seeding aerosols thus confirming the rays do play a major role in cloud formation and climate change. Climate science is extremely complex (though it attracts its fair share of infantile responses) and readers can find CERN’s preliminary results in ‘Nature’
The Gathering Storm (Tues 18th Oct)
The introduction of the euro in 1999 led to a vast lending-boom in Europe’s peripheral economies including the group known collectively as the Club Med banana republics. Apparently investors believed that the shared currency made Greek or Spanish debt just as safe as German debt which gives “wishful thinking” a whole new level of meaning. Contrary to what is often said, this lending boom was not all about profligate government spending – Spain and Ireland actually ran budget surpluses on the eve of the crisis. But the inflows of money fueled preposterous booms in private spending, especially on housing, which ended suddenly as a result of both the economic and the fiscal crisis. Savage recessions drove down tax receipts, pushing budgets deep into the red, just at the time when the cost of bank bailouts led to a sudden increase in public debt. One result of this sudden inrush of reality was the collapse of investor confidence in the government bonds of peripheral EU nations and the post-industrial south. Europe’s answer has been to impose harsh fiscal austerity and cuts in public spending while providing stop-gap financing until private-investor confidence returns. Can this strategy work? It is difficult to see why it should since official hopes of recovery in terms of jobs and growth appear to depend on exports – mainly to other EU countries. But exports can hardly be expected to boom if other countries are also implementing austerity policies and it is more likely the whole EU will remained stalled in recession. In addition, the European Central Bank has a deflationary bias and made the terrible mistake of raising interest rates in 2008 just as the financial crisis was gathering strength. This will lead to very low inflation in Germany and deflation in the debtor nations which will increase the real burden of their debts thus ensuring all rescue efforts will fail. The EU policy elites are just as tied to hard-money-and-austerity dogma as was Weimar Germany when balanced budgets and the gold standard deepened the Great Depression. There is a yawning chasm between what the euro needs to survive and what EU leaders are willing to do (or even discuss) and that makes it hard to be optimistic.
The myth of Peak Oil (Wed 19th Oct)
The spectre of ‘peak oil’ haunts the West, fueling anxieties about the stability of global supplies as China and other emerging economies take to the road en masse. Doomsters argue that the world has reached a point of maximum oil output so that ‘an unprecedented crisis is looming of economic recession, starvation and war’. In fact, this is the fifth time in modern history that there has been a widespread fear that the world was running out of oil, the first occurring in the USA as early as the 1880s. Production was then concentrated in Pennsylvania and it was thought no oil existed west of the Mississippi – until massive amounts were found in Texas and Oklahoma. Similar fears emerged after both world wars and in 1970 it was said that the end was nigh yet since 1978 world oil output has increased by 30%. Scientific caution and scepticism cannot preclude such panics as Charles Mackay noted in his iconic ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’. The history of social psychology and psychopathology is littered with popular follies sustained by prophetic zealots causing economic bubbles, crusades and witch-hunts. Mackay wrote: ‘Of all the offspring of Time, Error is the most ancient. It is so familiar an acquaintance that Truth comes upon us like an intruder and meets an intruder’s welcome’. No modern developments seem able to bolster confidence in our energy resiliency and the fear of peak oil maintains a powerful grip on the media and our political class. Yet for the foreseeable future, it is clear that petroleum supplies will continue to grow as a result of innovation, investment and the development of more challenging resources. Oil regarded as inaccessible or uneconomical is now on-stream, such as the Brazilian off-shore ‘presalt’. Things do not stand still in the energy industry and unconventional sources of oil, in all their variety, will soon become a familiar part of the world’s petroleum supply. Peak oil, like all simplistic Malthusian prophecies, under-estimates human ingenuity and we should recall that the Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of stone.
The hand-out generation (Thurs 20th Oct)
I remember reading with a sense of foreboding in 2008 that “the smartest guy ever to become president” was about to transform America into a liberal utopia. Clearly history is not the left-wing media’s strong suite since Barak Obama is hardly in the same league as such intellectual giants as Jefferson, Adams, Wilson and Hoover. As regards the statist paradise where wealth is spread evenly among those who labour and those who live off the fruits of such labour – that is still some way off. The idea that government can bail-out, regulate, direct and stimulate a nation into prosperity has pretty much been tested to destruction and cost the US some $5 trillion. Learning that government cannot create wealth and a private sector drowning in green taxes and red tape cannot kick-start recovery has also been costly on this side of the Pond. The “Occupy Wall Street” protesters and their imitators in London make the 1970s “Me Generation” seem altruistic and their sole contribution so far has been to take up space. To give them their due, that is their métier and they have been occupying college space for years without acquiring the skills that might fit them to contribute to the economy. Now returned to “occupy” their old family bedrooms they have come to present both nations with a list of demands starting with the cancellation of all student debt. In pursuit of pretendy degrees in pretendy subjects at pretendy universities and acquiring mind-altering substances, bills of £40,000 have been run up which they want us to pay. Wall Street occupiers also demand a “living wage” of $20 per hour, bestowed whether or not the recipient chooses to work – which, we are informed, is yet another human right. This is accompanied by a demand for open borders and all the usual railing against big oil, capitalists, global warming, genetically modified foods, nuclear power and Israel. Having from infancy denied their mothers access to clean their rooms, the occupiers have naturally prevented New York workers from cleaning the encampment in Zuccotti Park. In their favour it must be admitted that they are making attempts at getting rid of their refuse by the age-old protestor method of throwing bags of garbage at the police. Even my liberal American friends ask, “Where is Mayor Richard Daley when you need him?” but 21st century Democrats openly embrace this “I want handouts!” coalition. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi warbled, “God bless them for their spontaneity. It’s young, spontaneous, focused and it’s going to be effective.” I am not sure that’s exactly good news!
Gay Marriage (Tues 25th Oct)
My gay friends – who are very far from the brassy, in-you-face, exhibitionists of the parades in Australia and America – are uneasy about the long step to gay marriage. It is so rare for a “straight” senior churchman to go into bat for them even in manifestly unfair practices like the exclusion of gay clerics they would rather I picked my battles. Yet I was an old fashioned minister of the Scottish Kirk in the sense that I was ordained into my parish in Broughty Ferry and remained there until I retired 35 years later. The words of the ordination in the Gaelic closely resemble that of a marriage service and in the past ministers were expected to remain with their people as with their wife. I saw it as my duty to serve the Ferry people in whatever way I could and that included rites of passage (baptism, wedding and funeral) for members and non-members alike. I have conducted expensive weddings in cathedrals as well as simple ceremonies on mountain tops, in ruined abbeys and, as a naval chaplain, on ships like the Discovery. With equal pleasure and diligence I have married couples of limited means or in straightened circumstances in my manse or manse garden as well as cafes and bars. Those who claimed I degraded Christian marriage by performing the ceremony in a bar received the sort of response which long ago took me off the list of potential Moderators. In fact the vows of the marriage service are so moving and transcendently beautiful I do not believe any loving couple should be prevented from making them before God. To take someone “to have and to hold from this day forward, for better for worse, for richer for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, till death do you part.” The bishops claim that marriage “does not owe its existence or rationale to governments or legislatures” which is true but neither does it owe it to the Catholic Church. The Scottish hierarchy should not need to be reminded that marriage is a multifaceted institution of great antiquity which predates the Christian Church by millennia. It has never had a single unchanging definition and same-sex marriages were celebrated in the classical world of Greece and Rome as well as regions of China such as Fujian. I value the views of Cardinal O’Brien but he should not dismiss as “foolish people” other Christian clergy – and the two thirds of all Scots – who do not agree with him.
In defence of assisted death (Wed 9th Nov)
Dignity in Dying is a campaigning organisation, funded by voluntary contributions from the public and independent of any political, religious or other affiliation. Its stated aim is for individuals to have greater choice, control and access to medical and palliative services with the option of a painless, assisted death within legal safeguards. Surveys regularly find that over 80% of the general public believes a doctor should be allowed to end the life of a patient with a painful incurable disease at the patient’s request. An increasing number of countries permit the assisted death of mentally competent, terminally ill patients suffering unbearably despite receiving optimal palliative care. That anyone could object to such a humane state of affairs seems astonishing but there has in fact been highly organised opposition to a change in the law. Some opponents appeal to obscure religious principles while others talk of slippery slopes and of theoretical pressures which could be made on the disabled and the elderly. The leaders of hierarchical Christian churches impose a rigid line on their flocks but in democratic churches it is clear many clerics and most lay people support assisted dying. I have long been an admirer of Margo MacDonald and on occasion Life and the Work, the Kirk’s magazine, has faced down official disapproval to let me support her case. The number of colleagues agreeing privately is so great conveners should not claim to speak for the Kirk as they clearly do not even speak for the clergy far less the pews. A similar divergence of opinion between committee-persons and those toiling in the trenches appears to be happening in the various branches of the medical profession. The medical knights and “merit-awardees” of the Royal Colleges are now being opposed by the foot soldiers of the Healthcare Professionals for Assisted Dying (HPAD). Successive surveys show that almost a third of all doctors are in favour of assisted dying and it is unacceptable that their ‘representative’ bodies refuse to represent their views. Nurses have always been more in tune with the public and it is clearly easier to heroically bear the sufferings of others if one does not have to experience it hour by hour. Joyce Robins of Patient Concern wrote, “Nurses, at the bedside of the dying, listen to patients and relatives whereas doctors, appearing but briefly, stick to the status quo”.
Maybe Herbert was an intellectual giant after all (Wed 8th Feb)
I rattled some cages when I had the temerity not only to cast a jaundiced eye on the “rabble without a cause” but to infer a leading engineer might be an intellectual. In the pre-industrial age the title was only conferred on men of letters but I had assumed in the 21st century it could be extended to include men of science and technology. Orphaned as a child, Herbert Hoover never attended high school but studied at night school before entering Stanford University and graduating with a degree in geology. He first worked in China as a mining engineer and became fluent in Mandarin which he spoke for the rest of his life – which some would consider an intellectual achievement. Moving to Australia he devised a revolutionary method for recovering zinc and founded the company we know today as Rio Tinto which in turn made his fortune. From then on he became an international mining consultant and prolific author in science and economics, holding professorships at the universities of Stanford and Columbia. In World War I, US President Wilson used the dynamic and incisive Hoover to provide famine relief for the allies during the war and defeated Germany in the aftermath. At the close of the war, the New York Times rightly named Hoover one of the “Ten Most Important Living Americans” and Wilson hoped he would be his Democratic successor. Instead, he ran the commerce department under Harding and Coolidge, revolutionized business-government relations and promoted the radio, air travel and international trade. He was beyond any question the best Secretary of Commerce in US history and home ownership, long-term mortgages and product standardization are part of his legacy. Wall Street crashed soon after his election as President and though he combated the Great Depression more ably than is ever allowed, it could not be turned round in three years. Nonetheless his Emergency Relief and Construction Act gave funds for public works and government secured loans to kick-start industry in what was essentially a “New Deal”. He remained active and after World War II, President Truman asked him to tour Europe and Germany to ascertain the economic situation and what might best be done. His brilliant report highlighting the need for massive US aid was taken up by Secretary of State George Marshall and his officials and formed the basis of the Marshall Plan. Like his contemporary Neville Chamberlain, he was a potentially outstanding national leader who was unlucky in his timing and faced intractable problems. Was he an intellectual? Well, perhaps not by the exacting standards of the Scottish literati but as a scientist and economist myself, I think he might just about pass the test.
Clerical Fluff (Thurs 10th Nov)
Britain’s economy has entered an era of low growth when many will be squeezed and it is unhelpful to heap all blame on the venal rich, the feckless poor and the bankers. The fact is that for over a decade around the turn of the 21st century we all started to live beyond our means and borrowed recklessly hoping tomorrow would pay the bill. The protest movement camped on his doorstep has moved the Archbishop of Canterbury to assault the immorality of capitalism and pen an article to the Financial Times. His Grace vaguely suggests “fiscal fairness and a sense of proportion” and advocates a Tobin tax, the unintended consequences of which are clearly beyond his understanding. Other concerned clerics declare that “maximising shareholder value should no longer be the sole criterion” but the nature of replacement criteria is not disclosed. Ed Miliband, whose contribution to the mess might suggest a period of reflective silence, has instead discovered “a gap between people’s values and the way our country is run”. Of course, democracy tends to leave us feeling powerless after encouraging us to believe we have a voice so the temptation to shriek abuse is understandable. But those in positions of leadership, including the clerics, have no such excuse and the platitudes included in the church’s recent report on financial ethics were Pythonesque. It was full of abstractions such as ‘the more we are free, the more we are in chains’ and has declared a crisis in which capitalism has spread greed, wealth and inequality. There is nothing of practical value in such fuzzy moralizing and the church is slumped in the pious simplicity of Savonarola’s Florence hoping to find a banker to burn. We need caution, balance and insight as we face one of greatest challenges of recent times but I have yet to hear an ethical contribution that is not a pretentious cop-out. We also need the democratic participation of parliament, local government, the City and the unions and this should not be short-circuited by clerical fluff and mob rule.
The future is shale (Tues 15th Nov)
Escaping the economic gloom for some golf in Portugal I met an energy-supply Physicist who had attended the European Unconventional Gas Summit in Poland. He was enthused by Cuadrilla Resources’ shale gas discovery in Lancashire which had been highlighted at the summit and was the best news the North-West has had in decades. The UK Parliament’s Energy and Climate Change Committee has already produced a realistic and balanced assessment of shale gas production and the issues involved. I asked him about the green lobby which had initially supported the use of the gas as part of its decarbonisation programme but appeared to be back-tracking at high speed. He said they were between a rock and a hard place in that cheap and abundant gas will undermine renewables whose vast cost can no longer be hidden from the public. Ten years ago Gordon Brown had billions to throw around and the hideous expense could be hidden by “subsidies” but today the UK faces the biggest financial crisis in decades. With large swathes of the poor, the elderly and the vulnerable freezing and starving in their homes in an effort to keep the lights on, the coalition will have to act. No government can afford to ignore such an opportunity and our “greenest-ever” will have to give shale gas the green light which is, after all, a fairly green thing to do. In spite of myths and scares, the technology of hydraulic fracturing has a fairly long track record and the potential problems of fracking can be dealt with by suitable regulation. Objections include the use of chemicals in the fracking process and fears of underground gas escape or the waste water entering the water table but these have all been addressed. Shale gas falls into the low risk category and it must be put in context with other energy sources to produce a comparative analysis of the environmental impact. Coal and oil have much greater environmental costs; solid fueled reactors have their risks; while wind farms with their hideous transmission-clutter wreck the landscape. The costs and benefits must be measured and with half the emissions of coal, our vast natural resources of cheap shale gas will reduce electricity and gas prices right away. It does not look as if the green lobby can win this argument and in such desperate times no government should sacrifice the vulnerable for a speculative and unproven theory.
A gigantic adolescent sulk (Wed 16th Nov)
Having been accused of being unchristian by calling our occupiers the “rabble without a cause”, I trawled online for their views and those of Wall Street, Italy and Greece. Some are interesting and focused, particularly on the overweening power of corporations and the kowtowing of the political class to big money but most are vague and petulant. The UK group’s ‘manifesto’ wants no spending cuts, supports all strikes and protests, demands alternatives to the ‘current system’ and refuses to ‘pay for the banking crisis’. Then there are the usual rants against big oil, capitalists, global warming, GM foods, nuclear power and Israel plus calls for open borders and an end to ‘global injustice’. It concludes by informing us that, “This is what democracy looks like.”, but some oldies like myself rather suspect that “This is what anarchy and mob rule look like.” Their slogan “Capitalism is Crisis” is old hat and overlooks the real crisis which is our amassing of household debt through consumer demands unearned by rising productivity. It might have been better if they had protested New Labour’s reckless spending, waste, selling off gold reserves, deregulation, ridiculous wars and worship of the City. Plenty of things need fixing, but the self-righteous campers have lost focus and it is hard to think of any clear, feasible action by an elected government that would satisfy them. It has descended into a tented tantrum by groups of media-savvy Twitterati who have been inspired by muddy summer music-festivals into throwing a gigantic adolescent sulk.
The big new thing (Thurs 17th Nov)
The American inventor, Thomas Edison, said, “None of my inventions came by accident. I see a worthwhile need to be met and I make trial after trial until it finally comes.” In a more light-hearted moment he encouraged ‘active patience’ by altering the line of a popular song to read, “Everything comes to him who hustles while he waits.” Both admonitions played their part in the discovery of the product grapheme: a super-conductor, an atom thick but stronger than steel and as revolutionary as silicon. Two Russian Physicists Konstantin Novoselov and Andre Geim were employed by Manchester University to work in the field of microscopic electromagnetism. On the side, the pair kicked around the idea of using the thinnest possible slice of a metal like graphite to create a transformer rather than using a semi-conductor like silicon. Faffing about in the lab, they tested the conductivity of some graphite residue on Scotch tape and discovered with the very first sample that it worked as a primitive transistor. It was a eureka moment and the pair dropped everything to concentrate on improving the conductivity by making it thinner until it was down to an atom thick (2D graphite). Possible uses include aircraft skin, foldable touch screens, replacing glass – it is perfectly transparent – and revolutionising everything from nanosurgery to homebuilding. Graphene’s properties were announced in 2004 and the pair won the Nobel Physics Prize six years later – an astoundingly short time signifying the importance of the discovery. Bringing it to the market is another matter and their hopes of trying to patent the material or at least some of their techniques were dashed by American technology’s legal muscle. To be fair, 21st century Britain lacks the commercial scientific expertise to develop such products compared to Silicon Valley and a US (or Far Eastern) partnership beckons. Graphene itself is the gift that keeps on giving with new possibilities emerging every day and the real excitement at the moment is layering graphene with different 2D materials. For example, my medic brothers see its future use in hygiene products or food packaging because sheets of graphene oxide are highly effective at killing bacteria such as e-coli. In fact, the only limits appear to be those of the human imagination and what lies outside the box of conventional product design and development is anybody’s guess. My only regret is that the gathering years will not allow me to see how this truly amazing discovery develops because the two Russians have opened up a whole new garden.
Our reckless agribusiness (Tues 22nd Nov)
Antibiotics are widely used in intensive farming partly to prevent the spread of disease amongst livestock in cramped conditions but mainly to promote animal growth. This has fueled the proliferation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) making infections in humans harder to treat. This pathogen is responsible for more deaths each year than AIDS and though firms feeding animals antibiotics defend the practice, its link to hospital outbreaks is clear. Antibiotics came on stream over 75 years ago and were one of the outstanding advances in medicine but in recent times greed has undermined this achievement. Doctors, aware of the misuse or overuse of antibiotics, have started to limit the number of prescriptions they write for human patients but agribusiness ploughs on regardless. In the US, some 80 percent of all antibiotics go to livestock even though the American government acknowledged the attendant health risks to humans more than 30 years ago. Most are given in small doses simply to bulk the animals up for market in spite of the fact that exposure to antibiotics at levels insufficient to kill bacteria causes resistance. The Animal Health Institute, which represents pharmaceutical companies, risibly argues that using the drug in the feed does not mean that it is being used “sub-therapeutically”. It is clear that the practice is driven solely by the fear that stopping the use of antibiotics would increase production costs and the EU has now banned this dangerous practice. In his speech accepting the 1945 Nobel Prize in Medicine, penicillin’s Scottish discoverer Alexander Fleming delivered an ominous warning of such profit-driven irresponsibility. His fears went unheeded with the US Food and Drug Administration soon approving the use of the drugs in livestock feed and the effectiveness of penicillin quickly plummeting. In a recent lawsuit filed against the FDA, the National Resources Defense Council cited research which found that half of all US meat products contained MRSA. Over 40 years ago I was part of the ethical pharmaceutical division of GlaxoSmithKline then basking in the success of the fabulous wide-spectrum antibiotic ampicillin. But it was in that glad confident morning one of our biblically-minded researchers repeated Fleming’s omen of “a cloud arising out of the sea, no bigger than a man’s hand.”
The West’s naivety (Wed 23rd Nov)
In 1979 the Shah of Iran was deposed by a massive popular uprising but what happened next should have given pause for thought among the promoters of the Arab Spring. As violent protests flare up again across Egypt, the West’s fashionable narrative of a new era of democracy across the Middle East is being exposed as hopelessly naïve. And the nightmare created in Libya by NATO’s neo-colonial adventure has also resulted in widespread anarchy, murder and looting as its medieval tribalists settle old scores. By supporting revolutions in Egypt and Libya, the West meddled in affairs it did not remotely understand and unleashed the beast of fundamentalism just as it did in Iraq. For far from paving the way for freedom and pluralism, the glad confident morning of the Arab Spring has turned is into a winter of chaos, oppression, torture and arbitrary arrest. Egypt’s new rulers are far more autocratic than Mubarak and in the past eight months more civilians have been tried in military courts than in all his 30 years in power. Worse still, women, Christians and other minorities like gay people should be especially afraid of the fearsome terror of Islamic fundamentalism now waiting in the wings. The Iraqi constitution claims equal rights for all citizens, but Article 2 undermines this by saying that “no law contradicting the established provisions of Islam may be established.” Egypt’s constitution also has an ‘Article 2’ saying much the same and though Egyptians had the chance to change that language in a March referendum, they chose to keep it. This is hardly surprising given that polls show over 80 percent of Egyptians support the execution both of adulterers and of Muslims who dare to leave their religion. The West’s naivety is shown in its belief that democracy will keep radical Islam in check whereas it is far more likely the new theocracies will make scapegoats out of minorities. Everywhere economies worsen, unemployment rises and living standards collapse which only plays into the Islamists’ cynical, Machiavellian, long-term game. It will be the same story in Syria where the “brave freedom-fighters” battling against the barbaric Assad are in fact Muslim radicals yearning for a totalitarian theocracy. As Harold Macmillan rightly warned, “Things never turn out as you expect, dear boy, and in the Middle East, no regime is so bad it cannot be replaced with something worse.
White House Hubris (Thurs 24th Nov)
The iconic political image of the year is of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton watching the real time link from the helmets of the US Navy Seals as they finally avenged 9/11. Exactly eight years after George Bush declared “Mission Accomplished”, Obama went on air to gleefully announce that in fact it was he who had finally given America justice. Sadly the President’s precipitant announcement devalued the intelligence gathered by the mission and the remaining Al-Qaeda leadership had time to scurry to another bolt hole. Worse still, his hubris in claiming credit for the mission angered members of Seal Team 6 whose version of events is contained in ‘Seal Target Geronimo’ published this week. The Seals’ own accounts differ from the White House version, which is not surprising as Obama was in fact watching video shot from 20,000ft by a drone circling overhead. Helmet cameras were not worn and White House watchers only knew the result when the words, “Geronimo Echo KIA” were spoken into a satellite phone after the mission. Four reconnaissance satellites were in orbit over the compound to obtain information and the Seals deny it was a ‘kill-mission’ which they dismiss as a ‘Washington fantasy word’. Obama put the operation at risk by refusing to allow the use of the near-silent Ghost Hawk helicopters because their fighter cover would “endanger relations with Pakistan”. Instead they had to use the older Stealth Hawks with a Prowler electronic-warfare aircraft from the carrier USS Carl Vinson jamming Pakistan’s radar and creating decoy targets. The intention was to capture Bin Laden alive but he pushed his screaming wife Amal in front of him and grabbed his AK-47 assault rifle at which point he was shot dead. Far from Obama’s “prolonged fire-fight” at the end of which Bin Laden lay dead, he was killed within 90 seconds of the start and only 12 bullets were fired in the entire operation. The author is Chuck Pfarrer, a former Seal Team 6 commander and it is a wake-up call for politicians like Blair, Brown and Obama with absolutely no military experience. For all his many faults, George Bush flew with the 147th Fighter Interceptor Group and was always accepted as ‘one of us’ by the Joe Shmoes of the American military. Effete elitists who would not be seen dead in a uniform need to get their facts right when doing their John Wayne stunts because they are not playing before a home-field crowd.
Is democracy inevitable? (Tues 29th Nov)
José Manuel Barroso, the former Portuguese Maoist now eurozone ‘leader’, proclaimed, “Our salvation lies in stronger governance, both in discipline and in convergence”. Technicians already run Greece and Italy but he wants the other ‘euro’ nation-states to submit draft taxing and spending budgets to Brussels for ‘enhanced surveillance’. It is only twenty years since Francis Fukuyama wrote of ‘democratic inevitability’ but Barroso’s pronouncements would not sound out of place in Napoleonic Europe. And beyond the eurozone, democracy is everywhere under attack with America’s fiscal system collapsing, the Arab Spring turning theocratic and mob-rule appearing in Britain. The sun is rising on dictatorial China, oligarchic Russia, kleptocratic Africa and ‘tongic’ Asia while a vast army of public servants hold the UK’s private-sector helots to ransom. Fukuyama thought democracy was self-correcting but under the credit bubble, western electorates voted for a series of spendthrift governments building up stupefying debts. American democracy fell into the hands of lobbyists while New Labour plunged the very depths of economic mismanagement with reckless public spending and ridiculous wars. Across most of the eurozone, electorates goaded politicians to promise ever more and if asked to show restraint or accept a measure of austerity, they simply voted them out. In fact ten years ago a Norwegian government study on the future of democracy warned that Fukuyama was mistaken and democracy is not an inevitable state of government. As we have seen in Britain, it withers first at the local level where centralism clogs access to the seats of power, restricting it to professional politicians in league with big money. This is what happened in interwar Germany and it is happening now not only in Britain but in America and the upper echelons of almost every European government. The Economist blandly assured its readers this month that “the eurozone will muddle through and Europe, with a sigh of relief, will continue down the path of genteel decline”. Well perhaps new disciplines under German guidance will provide the eurozone with a benign future and a re-elected Obama will rally the US – but I wouldn’t bet on it.
A German Hero (Wed 30th Nov)
Exactly seventy years ago one of the most compelling and attractive combatants of the Second World War was killed in an air crash while landing in a storm near Berlin. Werner Mölders was the first pilot in aviation history to claim 100 aerial victories but is best remembered by his RAF opponents for his chivalry and ethereal personality. He was devoutly religious and demanded that all Allied aviators captured under his command be treated with the utmost civility and many were invited to dine with him. Douglas Bader, the legendary British pilot, was one who joined Mölders and his great friend and fellow ace Adolf Galland for lunch after he was shot down in August 1941. The pair petitioned Herman Goering to allow safe passage for a replacement artificial-leg for Bader and within a few days it was parachuted down from a Blenheim bomber. Years later I caddied for Bader and he was still full of admiration for his long dead foe describing him as “a man of indisputable charm and a simply marvellous tactician”. That autumn Mölders became the first of only 27 German servicemen to be awarded the Knights Cross with Swords and Diamonds, an award beyond our VC in its rarity value. He was then appointed Inspector General of Fighters and given responsibility for ‘the future tactics and operational doctrine’ of Germany’s fighter command. His death of the 22nd of November 1941 in the early stages of the monumental struggle in the East was a major set-back and was to have serious repercussions later in the war. The Americans were never convinced of the cost-benefit ratio of the long range strategic bombing of Germany and facing a foe like Mölders might have tipped the balance. Arthur Harris would have been no match for the German tactical genius and if the 15 per cent loss rate of the Nuremberg raid had become routine he would have been sacked. Britain invested a wholly disproportionate amount into long-range bombing and reverting to army support would have prevented war-crimes like Dresden in the final days. The final result was inevitable but the shameful carnage inflicted on refugee-packed cities with the war already won, which still stains our reputation, might have been avoided. The regime casts a long shadow yet fliers like Mölders and Galland, generals like von Manstein and Rommel and seamen like Langsdorff and Kretschmer were noble foes.
What global warming? (Thurs 1st Dec)
Regardless of whether the globe is actually warming, interest in the subject is cooling and the opening of the Durban conference on climate change attracted almost no attention. With the world on the brink of economic depression, global warming is yesterday’s news and climate hyperventilation is no longer fashionable or even intellectually respectable. Scientific mistakes and green propaganda have undermined public confidence while the behaviour revealed by the Climategate whistleblower’s latest e-mails is deplorable. In political debates heralding next year’s elections, US presidential hopefuls described global warming as a “hoax” and outrage at such a suggestion was remarkably muted. Europe promoted the Kyoto Protocol at the same time as it promoted the disastrous euro and today costly green initiatives are the very last thing voters are prepared to welcome. Its economic nightmare is forcing the EU to face up to the reality that more than €200 billion has been squandered on completely inane and ineffective climate policies. A new report by Swiss bank UBS reveals the emissions-trading scheme has already cost European energy consumers many billions with ‘zero impact” on CO2 emissions. The UN notion of a rich north making emission cuts and a poor south being compensated was always a bit simplistic but with China still classed as ‘south’ it looks plain daft. BASIC countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – have also kicked the ball into the long grass by announcing any future agreement must await the 2014 IPCC report. So the overall message of the Durban summit is already clear – the hopeless gridlock of international climate diplomacy is set to continue for the foreseeable future. Some nations, like Scotland, may try to ‘go it alone’ but fuel poverty and the departure of any remaining energy-intensive industry will eventually induce some common sense. However the green obsessives at the back end of our pantomime horse of a coalition are still intent on sending one third of a billion to Africa to fight ‘global warming’. Sadly, even when aid is given for something practical like a hospital, it tends to end up in Harrods and it will get there a lot faster when the target is such nebulous nonsense. Given the manifest reluctance of the world’s big emitters to accept legally binding targets we should expect the emergence in Durban of climate realpolitik of ‘wait-and-see’.
The Kirk’s incoherent opposition to gay marriage (Tues 6th Dec)
Extreme intolerance of homosexuality was the Kirk’s default position and it was the reason Scotland was exempted from the 1967 Sexual Offences Act decriminalising gay love. Willie Ross baulked at crossing the powerful national church and it was another thirteen years before Margaret Thatcher managed to bring Scotland into line. She subsequently received a hostile reception at the General Assembly even though Lord Mackay was not alone in judging her speech one of the best heard there in modern times. Today things have changed, the Kirk is a shadow of the power it once was and recent national surveys show Scots support gay marriage in the ration of 3 to 1. Even if the pronouncements of the Kirk’s Legal Questions Committee represented the views of the entire church – which is did not – no religious body has a monopoly definition of marriage. And it most certainly should not seek to impose its view on the rest of a pluralist society composed of all faiths and none where a clear majority rejects that opinion. Quakers, liberal Jews and other Protestant churches accept the Scottish government’s gay marriage proposals and rightly see the issue as being about civil rights and not some perceived morality. The Kirk insults our intelligence by claiming homophobia is a sin, insisting it ministers to all ‘regardless of sexual orientation and practice’ and refusing to marry gay members. It beggars belief that a gay Church of Scotland couple is denied the freedom to wed in their own church and to have that union registered by a celebrant of their own faith. In Scotland last year there were less than 500 civil partnerships compared to some 30,000 different-sex marriages so it is crass for the Kirk to claim the institution is threatened. Secular society in the UK has moved on and its tolerance is now exemplary yet our church leaders foam at the mouth over this manifestly fair-minded legislation. To claim polygamy must follow, our human rights will be subverted and Scotland will be ‘shamed in the eyes of the world for intolerance’ (sic) is both idiotic and incoherent. The very people one might expect to support diversity and inclusiveness misuse biblical language to insist discrimination against gay people must continue on hallowed ground.
Celebrating the Pill (Wed 7th Dec)
The oral contraceptive finally arrived for use on UK shores exactly 50 years ago and was immediately made available to women on the NHS by health minister Enoch Powell. The first commercial product was Enovid based on the progestin norethynodrel which was originally synthesized by the Polish-American chemist Frank Colton in 1952. It was marketed for menstrual disorders initially and trialed in Puerto Rico but in 1960 the US Food and Drug Administration approved its use as a contraceptive. Today, it is taken by around one in three British women of reproductive age and has given women throughout the world unprecedented control over their fertility. The technology has had a key role in the economic rise of women by setting back the age at which they married allowing them to make long-term educational and career plans. Yet this separation of sexual activity from reproduction was not universally welcome and was denounced by Pope Paul VI in his famous 1968 encyclical Humanae Vitae. Across the years it has been variously blamed for sparking the 1960s sexual revolution, loosening society’s morals, promoting teenage promiscuity and altering the sex of fish. However, growing up in a mining village just prior to its introduction I recall its impact on the girls I knew as immediate, life-changing and almost entirely beneficial. Families were huge (six children was normal), parents disowned unmarried mothers, backstreet abortionists were thriving and orphanages were full of illegitimate children. There can, of course, occasionally be complications but my medic brothers say that fears about the damage the pill may do to women’s health have been grossly overstated. It did not cause the sexual revolution: studies show many 1950s women had pre-marital sex and one third of all children born in the UK during WWII were illegitimate. Half a century ago maternal health in the West was as much of an issue as it is today in the developing world with unplanned pregnancies trapping women in a cycle of poverty. Without control over their reproductive lives women can never have full equality, and though taken for granted today, it truly was a quantum leap in human progress.
The futile strike (Thurs 8th Dec)
The lasting effect of the public sector strike may be to divert attention beyond efforts to bring its pensions into line with the private sector to the larger issue of its pay. The gap between employees’ pension contributions and costs will rise to £10 billion per year but their pay bill is £200 billion – over half of everything spent on public services. The colossus cannot be reformed without tackling pay and the Chancellor was right to highlight the fact that almost 5 million people are covered by national pay scales. Because the problem is not that workers earn too much but that pay systems are so rigid with incremental progression ramping up NHS and other salaries in spite of the freeze. Gordon Brown proposed regional wage bargaining in his 2004 Spending Review but he blinked and the coalition needs real courage to face down the health leviathan. With its ring-fenced budget the NHS remains impervious to reality whereas the police, prisons and local government are using the “cuts” as a catalyst to rethink services. It would certainly be more consistent with the coalition philosophy of localism to control spending by limiting financial allocations rather than interfering directly with pay. In Germany wages are settled regionally but it would be even better if the coalition encouraged heads of bodies like schools and hospitals to negotiate wages individually. This process exists in Sweden where the move in the 1990s from centrally set pay to individual contracts has proved hugely popular even in that highly unionised nation. The spectre has been raised of a return to the 1970s with a three-day week, inflation over of 20 %, IMF bail-outs, a Winter of Discontent and constant, debilitating strikes. That is unlikely because today’s unions are much less powerful and while the public sector can inconvenience ordinary people, it cannot bring whole industries to their knees. In addition, the reforms introduced by Margaret Thatcher and retained by New Labour make it much more difficult for union anarchists to hold the country to ransom. The facile one-day strike placed not only public sector pensions but public sector pay at the top of the coalition’s agenda and this is surely the moment to call the unions’ bluff.
The Euro Farce (Tues 13th Dec)
The fundamental economic problem at the heart of the euro crisis is but the latest version of an issue which faced policymakers at Bretton Woods and was never resolved. In 1944, John Maynard Keynes argued the planned new exchange rate regime required symmetrical obligations on creditor and debtor countries to deal with imbalances. Keynes lost the argument so the problem has returned regularly to haunt the world and was the basis of the US-Japan discord in the 1980s and US-China trade tensions today. In general terms there are four criteria for a successful currency union: wage flexibility, labour mobility, common business cycles and regional fiscal transfers. The size of these transfers should equal the size of the trade surplus so that Germany and other surplus countries should, in perpetuity, hand over money to the deficit countries. In the euro’s gestation period François Mitterrand blackmailed reunification-obsessed Helmut Kohl for support but then found he was trapped in Germany’s embrace. Mitterrand was elected on the promise of delivering an expansionary economic policy but Kohl would have none of it and demanded French fiscal rigour and the ‘franc fort’. For France, the pay-off has been existential because Europe is the engine room of French power and without the euro there would be nothing left of its global pretensions. At present I see no trace of German recognition that the roots of the crisis lie in Berlin’s massive and permanent export surplus secured by the very existence of the euro. Outside Europe, Germany gains hugely from having the euro because if there were a return to the Deutsche mark, foreign investors would consider it a “safe haven”. That would result in the mark’s exchange rate and the cost of its exports rocketing so it is no wonder Merkel is desperate to ‘save’ the euro. The desire to retain a eurozone configured to its interests drives Germany’s attitude to currency reform and its nonchalance at the binning the original ‘European project’. President Sarkozy lays the blame for the recent fiasco on David Cameron but the UK could hardly sign up to a new structure so blatantly designed to be in German interests. Whatever is enshrined in the new treaty, a supranational scheme which condemns much of Europe to indefinite austerity will not survive the realities of national politics. The Eurocrats have exchanged ‘Stability and Growth’ for ‘Austerity and Contraction’ and the UK was right to dissociate itself from this collective suicide pact.
Frozen Planet (Wed 14th Dec)
You know you have become a national treasure when, like Sir David Attenborough, you have been spoofed by both the legendary Spike Milligan and Michael Palin. Who can forget his Aussie ‘cousin’ David Rabbitborough searching the outback for the Walkabout Tree or his beautifully filmed series on the primitive urbanites of Sydney? I was therefore taken aback to hear that the last episode of his recent BBC series, ‘Frozen Planet’, was judged so controversial it had been withheld from international release. This has only happened to “The War Game” and even Al Gore’s disaster movie was shown to school children albeit with a health warning imposed by a high court judge. It turned out to be his usual doom-laden message issued with the reverential tones used by Dr Cameron of Tannochbrae to tell the old ghillie he would walk the hills no more. To remind us of the time when he lay in the arms of a lovelorn Silverback gorilla, he sat beside a ‘dead’ polar bear whose nose twitched alarmingly as the anaesthetic wore off. At first I thought the reason the episode was withheld was that the bear had woken up and David had become the first presenter to be captured on film being eaten alive. In fact the problem was he focused on the Antarctic Peninsula – the only part of the continent where there has been a significant ice melt. He failed to mention this was caused by ocean current shifts due to changing wind patterns – not global warming – and Antarctica has grown colder in the past 50 years. As it contains 90 per cent of the planet’s ice, the growth in its sea ice has more than counterbalanced any shrinkage in the Arctic so sea levels will not change. Research done by the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska reveals that the Earth’s climate is actually still recovering from the Little Ice Age. This started in the late 13th century when the Atlantic pack ice spread and the next six centuries showed humanity has infinitely more to fear from global cooling than warming. It had nothing to do with CO2 and resulted from our climate’s inherent variability caused by orbital cycles, decreased solar activity, volcanoes and altered ocean current flows. Attenborough also failed to mention that for 98% of the Earth’s existence there was no ice at either pole and on six other occasions there was ice at the equator – ‘Snowball Earth’.
The God Particle (Thurs 15th Dec)
Peters Higgs was the professor of theoretical physics at Edinburgh University after whom the Higgs boson is named – the most sought-after particle in modern physics. Much to the atheist Higgs’ annoyance, it is often called the ‘God particle’ after being so described in Leon Lederman’s book ‘If the universe is the answer, what is the question?’ Many other scientists dislike the name since it overstates the particle’s importance and its discovery will still leave unanswered questions about the ultimate origin of the universe. At present physics has reduced the laws governing the behaviour and interaction of all known forms of matter and energy to a small set of fundamental laws and theories. The goal is to find the ‘common ground’ uniting all of these theories into an integrated theory of everything of which the other known laws would simply be special cases. The famous Standard Model groups two major existing models into a consistent theory describing the interactions between all known particles in terms of quantum field theory. It is a subject which has intrigued major western scientists of the 20th century like Albert Einstein and Richard Feynman as well as surpassingly brilliant Asian physicists. Trying to find an explanation for the origin of the mass of elementary particles, Higgs (and others in the field) predicted the existence of a new particle now bearing his name. The Higgs boson plays a unique role in the Standard Model by explaining why the photon has no mass and why the other elementary particles are massive. As yet, no experiment has conclusively detected the Higgs but it is hoped CERN’s Large Hadron Collider will either observe it or provide reasons to exclude its existence. Earlier this year CERN’s director Rolf-Dieter Heuer said: ‘By the end of 2012 we will have an answer to the Shakespearean question for the Higgs boson: to be or not to be’. Even discovering its non-existence would be huge, requiring a serious revision of the Standard Model and its explanation of the fundamental mechanics of the universe. Such a revision is probably coming anyway because the Model cannot incorporate dark energy nor provide a theory for gravitation as described by general relativity.
Václav Havel – Cold War Hero (Tues 20th Dec)
One of the most depressing moments of my life occurred on the day Russian tanks rolled in to crush Czechoslovakia’s brief moment of the political freedom in 1968. It was called the Prague Spring and unlike the Arab equivalent 43 years later it was not immediately followed by a new oppression but by freedom of speech and of travel. Sadly Alexander Dubček’s forlorn attempt to grant his people a modicum of human rights, democracy and economic decentralization infuriated the Soviet Union. Within a few weeks all that remained was the movement’s inspirational art and music and even that was suppressed in the darkest hour before the long awaited Russian dawn. But the work of its leader, Václav Havel, was effective abroad leading to the demise of the British Communist party and the defection of its most iconic figure Jimmy Read. In spite of long periods of imprisonment, Havel remained a passionate supporter of non-violent resistance in the tradition of Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King. Finally, he was able to lead the Czech people out of tyranny during the bloodless end of communism in 1989 known as the Velvet Revolution and he became their first president. One of his first acts was the general release of those imprisoned during the Soviet era saying the decisions of the corrupt courts of the previous regime could not be trusted. He was the ultimate Cold War hero and played a pivotal role in bringing freedom to Eastern Europe though of course, like Gandhi, he was not given the Nobel Peace Prize! Yet he did receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom as well as the Gandhi Prize both of which have an infinitely better list of recipients than the heavily politicized Nobel award. Though a Czech Green party member, he was an excoriating critic of global warming describing it as “a metaphysical ideology with nothing to do with the natural sciences.” He dismissed the IPCC as “a neo-political body; a non-government organization of green flavor. It is neither a scientific institution nor a balanced forum of climate scientists.” Recently he had looked thin and drawn and on Sunday he finally succumbed to chronic respiratory problems – a legacy of the years he spent in dank communist prisons. Apart from Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey, I consider Havel the most sympathetic and ultimately successful of all the modern West’s revolutionary leaders.
Is Sarkozy mad? (Wed 21st Dec)
French President Sarkozy is lashing out at all his ‘enemies’ and now plans to prosecute people who deny that the deportation of Armenians by Ottoman Turks was genocide. The respected US historian Bernard Lewis has already been fined in a French civil court for saying, “The events constitute genocide only in the Armenian version of history”. During World War I the Ottoman Empire was under extreme pressure not only externally but also internally as both Armenian and Arab nationalists provoked armed revolts. In eastern Anatolia, during the Caucasus Campaign the Armenian population engaged in open warfare and in 1915, a separatist government was proclaimed in Western Armenia. At the same time a joint French and British operation was mounted in the Dardanelles to capture the Ottoman capital of Constantinople and secure a sea route to Russia. The Ottomans were desperate to remove the Armenian threat because its brigades were causing mayhem in their homelands and fighting alongside the Russians on the front. Turkey today takes the position that subsequent Armenian deaths were, on the whole, the result of WWI turmoil and the terrorist activity of their radicals should not be ignored. These dreadful events cannot be seen in isolation and it is clear Christian propaganda in Asia Minor helped to initiate a region-wide conflict between the Crescent and the Cross. In addition the West glosses over the fate of millions of Ottoman Muslims expelled from the Balkans and Russia in the 19th and 20th centuries to focus solely on the Armenians. Certainly Franciscan monks living in the region have always claimed it was not an act of genocide but a two sided battle with Armenian militia supported by Russian troops. Turkey never accused Russia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro of genocide and argues the events were part of the war so it is absurd for Turkey to be alone in the dock. The worst instances of famine occurred in what is now Syria and its reasons must include bad harvests, men at the front and the total blockage of the coast by the French navy. If France goes ahead, Turkey will retaliate by denouncing its vile record in Algeria as well as its part in the Armenian famine so a little discretion might be warranted.
Thoughts for Christmas (Thurs 22nd Dec)
During my years as a parish minister I longed for Christmas Day to fall on a Sunday – as it will this year – because services between Christmas and New Year are so forlorn. Apart from Remembrance Sunday, no other act of public worship is easier to lead as long as the celebrant remains focussed and does not get in the way of the traditional message. Alan Clark, the revisionist historian and wayward Tory minister of the Thatcher era, wrote in his otherwise execrable diaries of a Christmas service attended in the Highlands. He had ceased to believe it was possible for the iconic story to be delivered by a British clergyman without it being deluged by all kinds of politically-correct twaddle. To his delight, the service was led by an old Highland minister who simply read from the King James Bible and chose well loved carols instead of “tuneless modern rubbish”. Of course, clergymen should speak up for the poor and excluded but it is a huge mistake to use Christmas Day to stray from general encouragement to political point-scoring. Kirk Moderators are now dissuaded from being ‘prophetic’ and in view of some of the stuff coming from the Catholic hierarchy and Rowan Williams it is perhaps no bad thing. I have always thought one of the greatest contributions of Christianity has been its belief in ‘willed change’ – the belief that tomorrow can be better and we can make it so. It is extraordinary that it should all have begun with these very obscure events taking place among poor, illiterate and subject people in the badlands of the Roman Empire. No contemporary Roman could possibly have imagined a new civilisation was starting which in terms of art and science and knowledge would reach unimaginable heights. Christians recall these events on Christmas Day and they will be joined for perhaps the only day in the year by families from our fractured and increasingly secular society. Hopefully they too will hear the old story in traditional language and sing the old carols with all party-political garbage and tuneless music binned for the festive season.
At the gate of the year (5th Jan)
I will always remember 2011 with delight as the year my daughter was married but for most people it turned out to be a pretty depressing and frustrating year. On the other hand, all punditry and long term weather forecasts were wide of the mark with Wall Street, the western currencies and even sea levels ending where they started. No geopolitical or intelligence agency foresaw the Arab Spring or the replacement of the Greek and Italian leaders by personal representatives of the German Chancellor. My recollection is that they predicted an Israeli attack on Iran, another banking crisis, the collapse of the US dollar, the Japanese bond market and British house prices. As it turned out, the Anglo-French finally got an excuse to bomb Gaddafi and Islamicists everywhere attacked their minorities which is deplorable but it could have been worse. The year’s non-event occurred at the Fukushima nuclear plant following an earthquake driven tsunami: 20,000 people died in the real (natural) disaster – nobody at the plant. We said a sad farewell to icons like Seve Ballesteros, Steve Jobs and Václav Havel but some not-so-sad farewells to the likes of Osama bin Laden and Kim Jong-il. British golf had its best year ever with Rory McIlroy in the US Open, Darren Clarke in our Open and the progress of that ultimate touring-professional Luke Donald. Mark Cavendish was rightly British Sport Personality of 2011 but it was Hawaiian surfer Garrett McNamara on the 90-foot Portuguese monster that will live in my memory. It was an appalling year for popular music and films but ‘All Hell Let Loose’, Max Hastings’ magisterial history of the Second World War, redeemed the literary scene. Looking to 2012, the only truth I know is: “Don’t bet against America” and since China’s approach to macroeconomic management is much the same, don’t bet against it either. We are too close to the EU to avoid another year of stagnation and the best we can hope for is the eurozone forging a single nation or arranging an orderly break-up. Finally, December 21 2012 marks the end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar but Mayan scholars dismiss apocalyptic scenarios leaving that field to the doomster Al Gore.
The greatest scientist since Einstein? (10th Jan)
Stephen Hawking turned 70 on Sunday – an achievement almost as extraordinary as his contributions to cosmology. For 30 years he was a professor of mathematics at Cambridge University and is best known for ‘A Brief History of Time’, the least-read best-seller in literary history. His key work involved the gravitational singularities of general relativity and the prediction that black holes should emit radiation, now known as ‘Hawking radiation’. To the delight of the media he is prone to stray into other fields where he makes saloon-bar comments on theology and controversial prophecies about humanity’s future. As his illness has advanced he has become profoundly pessimistic suggesting that we will be wiped out by a virus (possible), nuclear war (unlikely) or global warming (joke). He now believes we have no long-term future on earth and that the survival of the human race requires the space programme to be restarted with a view to mass travel and colonisation. In a BBC Radio 4 programme to mark his 70th birthday Hawking answered some listeners’ questions which provide an insight into his current thinking. He is highly sceptical of the results of the CERN experiments which appear to show neutrinos travelling faster than light because they are not supported by parallel research. The existence of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is statistically inevitable but he warns the outcome of any interaction will resemble Europeans arriving in the Americas. The media often refer to Hawking as ‘the greatest physicist since Albert Einstein’ which I suppose means superior to all those who have been around since his death in 1955. However to claim his contributions were more significant than those of the likes of Bohr, Born, Dirac, Feynman, Heisenberg, Landau, Pauli and Schrödinger is just ridiculous. I value him as an indomitable human being and treasure his reflections on his condition: ‘It is a waste of time to be angry about disability. One simply has to get on with life’.
Michelle unlikely to be fazed (Wed 11th Jan)
The first black student to gain entry to Harvard Law School at the turn of the 20th century was a graduate of the relentlessly elitist Californian ‘hidden Ivy’, Pomona College. It was therefore no surprise when I entered Pomona 50 years ago to face formidable black female academics – the forerunners of Condoleezza Rice and Michelle Obama. The civil rights movement was still in its infancy and they had to be wary in the south, but in the liberated atmosphere of western academia they were no shrinking violets. During the 2008 election, I was more intrigued by Michelle than by her husband, who struck me as a smooth-talking Chicago machine-politician with unsavory backers. In the last century, the unwritten rules of presidential electioneering permitted no-holds-barred attacks on the candidate but placed his wife and family strictly off-limits. This broke down during the Bush-Gore election when the desperate Democrats targeted the Bush twins Barbara and Jenna, then at the universities of Yale and Texas. Michelle will be a victim of Republican retaliation with muscular depictions already appearing of her as an imperious, vacation-obsessed, shopaholic Marie Antoinette. Her situation will not be helped by ‘The Obamas’, a book written by journalist Jodi Kantor which details the feuds between the first lady and key presidential advisers. The Republicans will probably try to portray her as a cross between angry and divisive White House wives of the past and Britain’s loose-cannon Cherie Blair. I doubt this will faze her because, unlike her husband, she really is the invincible product of America’s slave plantations with a history of storming the bastions of privilege. Hot-housed through Chicago’s ‘magnet’ school system, she went up to Princeton where she read African-American studies before gaining her law degree at Harvard Law School. She worked for a couple of years as a lawyer in intellectual property before opting for state administration as well as salaried board memberships as her husband’s status grew. Racist labels could backfire because this high-profile African-American woman in a stable marriage is both a positive role model and a clear example of racial mobility. Given the fruits-and-nuts-and-flakes on the Republican ticket, it is hard to see Obama losing, which may explain why Fox News is kick-starting a ‘Draft Hillary’ campaign.
John Cameron replies to the claim that he confused Havel and Klaus. (Thurs 12th Jan)
Václav Havel and Václav Klaus were such rivals there was a tendency to exaggerate the differences between them on policy issues such as the euro and global warming. Klaus studied ‘the economics of foreign trade’ at Prague University and international finance as a post-graduate student at Cornell University in the United States. From the very first he was opposed to the political extension of the EU and called for such aspirations to be scrapped and a return made to the original idea of a free trade area. He could not understand why having just escaped the dead hand of Soviet communism the Czechs should be so keen to subject themselves to the dead hand of Brussels. In a similar vein he opposed the global-warming activists whose tactics reminded him of ‘Soviet communism’s methods, practices and prevention of counter-arguments’. As an economist he was especially critical of the ‘deeply flawed’ Stern report on the cost of global warming based on what he termed ‘a gross cherry picking of doubtful facts’. Havel on the other hand was a playwright, essayist and poet, a politician by force of circumstances and a close friend of Milan Horácek, founder of the German Greens. It was therefore easy to portray him as a rabid cheer-leader for the eurozone and global warming yet though he was clearly an environmentalist he also exercised some caution. As grave doubts started to surface after he left office about both euro-economics and climate-science he grew increasingly uneasy about the huge sacrifices being demanded.
In later speeches he would say:
‘The end of the world has been anticipated so many times in the past but it has not happened and it is not going to happen this time either. The effects of possible climate change are obscure and hard to estimate because our planet has never been in a state of balance but has evolved over billions of years. I think it highly unlikely such a complex phenomenon problem can be solved by a single branch of science or that change is driven by a single one of the many factors involved. Observations must be analysed with an open mind, ideological obsession must be resisted and wide discussion encouraged rather than prevented by claims that the debate is over’.
Theories on the Costa Concordia (Tues 17th Jan)
I was still serving in the Royal Naval Reserve when the behemoth cruise liners emerged and it was pointed out their safety standards were designed for vessels half their size. Ironically in the centenary year of the Titanic drills and evacuation procedures are still a major cause of concern and lifeboat design has barely moved on since 1912. Boats are still lowered on wires and if the vessel is listing badly half are unusable yet oil rigs use rapidly-launched enclosed pods that drop into the water from a sloping ramp. In addition the same fears have been heard about ships officers too reliant on electronic navigation aids as have been heard about air crews in their fly-by-wire cockpits. At present there are at least three conflicting theories as to how the Costa Concordia, one of the largest passenger ships in the world, came to capsize within yards of the shore. The first is the captain’s claim that it hit an uncharted rock and as he steered into the safer, shallow waters off the island of Giglio it hit more rocks and rolled on to its side. The second is that there was a massive electrical and/or computer failure which sent the navigation systems haywire causing it to sail too close to shore where it hit the rocks. A third theory is that it was old-fashioned human error or macho recklessness – still the main cause of 80 per cent of shipping accidents – or a combination of all three. The investigation will take months to look into every decision, order and event but it is already clear that there was an earlier explosion and that the ship’s lights failed. A bank of diesel engines generates electricity to power these ships and an engine-room explosion will cause the lights to fail and the engines and steering to shut down. A similar failure hit the Queen Mary in 2010 as it approached Barcelona but there were no hazards nearby so the crew had time – 30 minutes – to restart the engines. It is certainly possible the captain hit an uncharted rock because in 2007 another cruise ship struck a reef incorrectly shown on official maps in the waters off Greece. Whatever the cause, the accident highlights the fact that the behemoths are hard to steer and evacuate, vulnerable to side wind and list badly if they take in water.